Home › Football › Botola 2 › Chabab Atl. Khenifra v Olympique Safi

Chabab Atl. Khenifra v Olympique Safi

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

4–2Full time

Olympique Safi

Botola 2 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 4–2 Olympique Safi CHABAB ATL. KHENIFRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chabab Atl. Khenifra win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.611

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 46 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chabab Atl. Khenifra win at 36%.
1′KICK-OFF Chabab Atl. Khenifra v Olympique Safi
2′Little has changed for our model: Chabab Atl. Khenifra 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–36–28
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Chabab Atl. Khenifra win 36%)
18′We said Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–66
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 0–1 Olympique Safi
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Olympique Safi win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 40%)
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1–1 Olympique Safi
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 33% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Olympique Safi win 67%)
26′We said Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 2–1 · 74–19–7
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2–1 Olympique Safi
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 74% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 42%)
27′We said Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–7
30′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 75–19–6
32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 32' Chabab Atl. Khenifra
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 31% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Chabab Atl. Khenifra win 75%)
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2–1 Olympique Safi
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 75% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 44%)
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Chabab Atl. Khenifra
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Olympique Safi
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 29% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Chabab Atl. Khenifra win 77%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2–1 Olympique Safi
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 48%)
45′HALF-TIME Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2–1 Olympique Safi
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Chabab Atl. Khenifra
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Olympique Safi
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 28% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Chabab Atl. Khenifra win 78%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2–1 Olympique Safi
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 78% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 50%)
46′SECOND HALF Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2–1 Olympique Safi
47′We said Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 3–1 · 96–3–1
47′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 96–3–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3–1 Olympique Safi
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
54′We said Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 4–1 Olympique Safi
55′5 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
63′GOAL DISALLOWED · 63' Chabab Atl. Khenifra
63′GOAL DISALLOWED · 63' Olympique Safi
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, 20% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Chabab Atl. Khenifra win over 99%)
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 4–1 Olympique Safi
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: 36% at kick-off, over 99% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Chabab Atl. Khenifra win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 63%)
67′We said Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–67–15
81′We said Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
84′That is 6, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 4–2 Olympique Safi
FTFULL TIME Chabab Atl. Khenifra 4–2 Olympique Safi
FTChabab Atl. Khenifra 4–2 Olympique Safi · Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Chabab Atl. Khenifra just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Chabab Atl. Khenifra 36%, draw 36%, Olympique Safi 28%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Chabab Atl. Khenifra v Olympique SafiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Chabab Atl. Khenifra win36%

Draw36%

Olympique Safi win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Olympique Safi

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Olympique Safi	4	+2	8
15	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	4	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chabab atl. khenifra winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Chabab Atl. Khenifra a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chabab Atl. Khenifra v Olympique Safi~~0.98 – 0.83

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 8~~15 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chabab Atl. Khenifra win	36%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
Olympique Safi win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	27%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw	72%	–	–
Chabab Atl. Khenifra clean sheet	44%	–	–
Olympique Safi clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.1%

0123450 18.1 11.9 5.6 1 14.5 14.8 5.5 2 7.9 6.5 2.7 3 2.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chabab Atl. Khenifra down, Olympique Safi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Botola 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Olympique Safi away: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Chabab Atl. Khenifra, 0.83 for Olympique Safi. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

CHABAB ATL. KHENIFRA

LLDL1–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–2

OLYMPIQUE SAFI

DWDW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	4	+4	10
2	Olympique Dcheïra	4	+5	9
3	Wydad Fès	4	+5	9
4	Ittihad Khemisset	4	+2	9
5	Olympique Safi	4	+2	8
6	USM Oujda	4	−1	7
7	Stade Marocain	4	0	6
8	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
9	El Massira	4	0	5
10	Olympique Khouribga	4	+2	4
11	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
12	KAC Kenitra	4	−1	4
13	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
14	Chabab Mohammédia	4	−3	2
15	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	4	−6	1
16	Riadi Salmi	4	−6	1