Chabab Atl. Khenifra v Chabab Mohammédia prediction · Botola 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1–1 Chabab Mohammédia CHABAB ATL. KHENIFRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chabab Atl. Khenifra win~~43%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.672

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.726

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chabab Atl. Khenifra win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chabab Atl. Khenifra 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–24
1′KICK-OFF Chabab Atl. Khenifra v Chabab Mohammédia
7′Little has changed for our model: Chabab Atl. Khenifra 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–33–24
45′HALF-TIME Chabab Atl. Khenifra 0–0 Chabab Mohammédia
46′SECOND HALF Chabab Atl. Khenifra 0–0 Chabab Mohammédia
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1–0 Chabab Mohammédia
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1–0 Chabab Mohammédia
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1–0 Chabab Mohammédia
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1–0 Chabab Mohammédia
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1–1 Chabab Mohammédia
FTFULL TIME Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1–1 Chabab Mohammédia
FTChabab Atl. Khenifra 1–1 Chabab Mohammédia · Chabab Atl. Khenifra win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Chabab Atl. Khenifra win43%

Draw34%

Chabab Mohammédia win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Chabab Mohammédia

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Chabab Mohammédia	2	−3	0
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	2	−5	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chabab atl. khenifra winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make Chabab Atl. Khenifra a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chabab atl. khenifra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chabab Atl. Khenifra win	43%	46%	−3
Draw	34%	32%	+2
Chabab Mohammédia win	23%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Both teams to score	37%	38%	0
Over 1.5 goals	58%	56%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	13%	15%	−2
Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw	77%	78%	−1
Chabab Atl. Khenifra clean sheet	47%	–	–
Chabab Mohammédia clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.6%

0123450 16.6 9.8 4.4 1 15.5 14.4 4.9 2 9.7 7.3 2.8 3 3.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chabab Atl. Khenifra down, Chabab Mohammédia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,464 Botola 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chabab Mohammédia away: 0.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Chabab Atl. Khenifra, 0.76 for Chabab Mohammédia. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–0 CHA · CHA 0–3 CHA

Form · last six in Botola 2

CHABAB ATL. KHENIFRA

DWDLLL0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–4

CHABAB MOHAMMÉDIA

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ittihad Khemisset	3	+3	9
2	USM Oujda	3	+2	7
3	Wydad Fès	2	+4	6
4	Yacoub El Mansour	2	+3	6
5	Olympique Safi	3	+1	5
6	El Massira	2	+1	4
7	Olympique Khouribga	3	+2	3
8	Mouloudia Oujda	2	0	3
9	Chabab Ben Guerir	3	0	3
10	Olympique Dcheïra	2	0	3
11	Stade Marocain	3	−1	3
12	Union Sportive Boujaad	3	−3	2
13	KAC Kenitra	3	−2	1
14	Riadi Salmi	2	−2	1
15	Chabab Mohammédia	2	−3	0
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	2	−5	0