Mogren v Rudar prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Mogren 0–0 Rudar MOGREN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mogren win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.838

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mogren win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mogren 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
1′KICK-OFF Mogren v Rudar
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mogren win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Mogren 0–0 Rudar
46′SECOND HALF Mogren 0–0 Rudar
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Mogren win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–44–27
59′We said Mogren at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–47–26
65′We said Mogren at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
73′We said Mogren at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Mogren win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
79′We said Mogren at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
84′We said Mogren at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Mogren win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
91′We said Mogren at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–4
FTFULL TIME Mogren 0–0 Rudar
FTMogren 0–0 Rudar · Mogren win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mogren just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mogren 39%, draw 25%, Rudar 36%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Mogren v RudarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mogren win39%

Draw25%

Rudar win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mogren

Rudar

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League (Montenegro)

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League (Montenegro)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Rudar	11	0	15
9	Mogren	11	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mogren winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Mogren a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mogren v Rudar~~1.47 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 15~~9 v 8

~~The market · Mogren win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mogren win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mogren win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Rudar win	36%	35%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	49%	+5
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	73%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	30%	+2
Mogren or draw	64%	65%	−1
Mogren clean sheet	26%	–	–
Rudar clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.4 7.9 5.6 2.6 1 8.3 11.7 7.9 3.7 2 6.2 8.3 5.7 2.7 3 3.1 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mogren down, Rudar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 905 Second League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mogren at home: 1.00 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Rudar away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Mogren, 1.39 for Rudar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RUD 0–3 MOG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 16 Sept

MOGREN

DLLLDD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

RUDAR

WDLWLW4–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mladost Lješkopolje	12	+7	23
2	Jedinstvo	11	+4	20
3	Zeta	11	+3	18
4	Grbalj	11	+3	16
5	Iskra	11	+1	16
6	Lovćen	11	−2	16
7	Kom	10	+3	15
8	Rudar	11	0	15
9	Mogren	11	−1	10
10	Berane	11	−18	2