Lovćen v Grbalj prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LovćenDrawGrbalj

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lovćen 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lovćen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lovćen 41%, draw 26%, Grbalj 33%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Lovćen v GrbaljBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Lovćen win41%

Draw26%

Grbalj win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lovćen

Grbalj

13Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League (Montenegro)

Last match: 24 Oct · Second League (Montenegro)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lovćen	12	+1	19
8	Grbalj	12	−4	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lovćen winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Lovćen a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lovćen v Grbalj~~1.51 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 20 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 16~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lovćen win	41%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Grbalj win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Lovćen or draw	67%	–	–
Lovćen clean sheet	27%	–	–
Grbalj clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.7 7.7 5.2 2.3 1 8.7 11.9 7.5 3.3 2 6.7 8.5 5.6 2.5 3 3.4 4.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lovćen down, Grbalj across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 911 Second League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lovćen at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Grbalj away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Lovćen, 1.31 for Grbalj. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GRB 1–1 LOV · LOV 0–2 GRB · GRB 1–0 LOV · LOV 0–2 GRB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 20 Sept

LOVĆEN

WLWLWW2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0

GRBALJ

WWLDLL3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jedinstvo	13	+10	23
2	Mladost Lješkopolje	12	+7	23
3	Zeta	12	+3	19
4	Lovćen	12	+1	19
5	Kom	11	+4	18
6	Iskra	12	+1	17
7	Rudar	12	0	16
8	Grbalj	12	−4	16
9	Mogren	12	−1	11
10	Berane	12	−21	2