Iskra v Mogren prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IskraDrawMogren

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Iskra 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iskra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iskra 48%, draw 28%, Mogren 24%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Iskra v MogrenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Iskra win48%

Draw28%

Mogren win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iskra

Mogren

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League (Montenegro)

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League (Montenegro)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Iskra	12	+1	17
9	Mogren	12	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iskra winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Iskra a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iskra v Mogren~~1.39 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 20 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 11~~6 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Iskra win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iskra win	48%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Mogren win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Iskra or draw	76%	–	–
Iskra clean sheet	41%	–	–
Mogren clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 11.0 8.9 4.2 1 13.8 12.7 5.5 2 9.7 8.4 3.8 3 4.6 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iskra down, Mogren across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 911 Second League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iskra at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mogren away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Iskra, 0.89 for Mogren. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MOG 1–2 ISK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 20 Sept

ISKRA

LWLWWD0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 5–1 · 1–1

MOGREN

LLLDDD1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jedinstvo	13	+10	23
2	Mladost Lješkopolje	12	+7	23
3	Zeta	12	+3	19
4	Lovćen	12	+1	19
5	Kom	11	+4	18
6	Iskra	12	+1	17
7	Rudar	12	0	16
8	Grbalj	12	−4	16
9	Mogren	12	−1	11
10	Berane	12	−21	2