Iskra v Berane prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Iskra 5–1 Berane ISKRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Iskra win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.356

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Iskra win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Iskra was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–21
1′KICK-OFF Iskra v Berane
3′Much as we predicted: Iskra was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–28–21
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Iskra 1–0 Berane
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Iskra 2–0 Berane
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Iskra 2–1 Berane
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Iskra 3–1 Berane
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Iskra 4–1 Berane
43′Iskra find the net on 41′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Iskra win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Iskra win: 51% at kick-off, 47% now
44′Iskra find the net on 41′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Iskra win: 51% at kick-off, 47% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Iskra win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
45′HALF-TIME Iskra 4–1 Berane
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Iskra win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
46′SECOND HALF Iskra 4–1 Berane
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Iskra 5–1 Berane
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Iskra 6–1 Berane
83′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Berane
FTFULL TIME Iskra 5–1 Berane
FTIskra 5–1 Berane · Iskra win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Iskra win51%

Draw28%

Berane win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Iskra

Berane

5Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Iskra	10	−3	13
10	Berane	10	−14	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iskra winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Iskra a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iskra win	51%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Berane win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Iskra or draw	79%	–	–
Iskra clean sheet	46%	–	–
Berane clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%

0123450 11.7 8.5 3.5 1 15.4 12.2 4.7 2 11.0 8.4 3.3 3 5.3 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iskra down, Berane across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 902 Second League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.56 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iskra at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Berane away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Iskra, 0.78 for Berane. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BER 0–1 ISK · BER 2–0 ISK · ISK 2–2 BER · BER 2–2 ISK

Form · last six in Second League

ISKRA

DLLWLW1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

BERANE

DDLLLL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mladost Lješkopolje	10	+7	20
2	Jedinstvo	11	+4	20
3	Zeta	10	+4	18
4	Grbalj	10	+4	16
5	Lovćen	11	−2	16
6	Iskra	10	−3	13
7	Kom	9	+2	12
8	Rudar	10	−1	12
9	Mogren	11	−1	10
10	Berane	10	−14	2