Grbalj v Jedinstvo prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Grbalj 0–7 Jedinstvo GRBALJ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Grbalj win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.653

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grbalj are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grbalj 40%, draw 26%, Jedinstvo 35%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Grbalj v JedinstvoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Grbalj win40%

Draw26%

Jedinstvo win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grbalj

Jedinstvo

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League (Montenegro)

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League (Montenegro)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Jedinstvo	12	+3	20
7	Grbalj	11	+3	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grbalj winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Grbalj a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grbalj v Jedinstvo~~1.43 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 20 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 20~~7 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grbalj win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Jedinstvo win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Grbalj or draw	65%	–	–
Grbalj clean sheet	28%	–	–
Jedinstvo clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.2 8.2 5.6 2.5 1 8.9 12.0 7.6 3.4 2 6.6 8.2 5.3 2.4 3 3.2 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grbalj down, Jedinstvo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 910 Second League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grbalj at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Jedinstvo away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Grbalj, 1.32 for Jedinstvo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~JED 2–0 GRB · JED 1–0 GRB · GRB 1–2 JED · JED 1–0 GRB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 20 Sept

GRBALJ

WWWLDL3–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

JEDINSTVO

WWDWLL3–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mladost Lješkopolje	12	+7	23
2	Jedinstvo	12	+3	20
3	Zeta	12	+3	19
4	Lovćen	12	+1	19
5	Kom	11	+4	18
6	Iskra	12	+1	17
7	Grbalj	11	+3	16
8	Rudar	12	0	16
9	Mogren	12	−1	11
10	Berane	12	−21	2