Berane v Lovćen prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Berane 0–3 Lovćen LOVĆEN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lovćen win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.580

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lovćen just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Berane 35%, draw 27%, Lovćen 38%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Berane v LovćenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Berane win35%

Draw27%

Lovćen win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Berane

Lovćen

3Days since last match5

Last match: 15 Oct · Cup (Montenegro)

Last match: 13 Oct · Cup (Montenegro)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Lovćen	11	−2	16
10	Berane	11	−18	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lovćen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Lovćen a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Berane v Lovćen~~1.23 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 16~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Berane win	35%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Lovćen win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Berane or draw	62%	–	–
Berane clean sheet	28%	–	–
Lovćen clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.7 10.1 6.7 3.0 1 9.6 12.8 8.0 3.5 2 6.1 7.6 4.9 2.1 3 2.5 3.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Berane down, Lovćen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 907 Second League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Berane at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lovćen away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Berane, 1.30 for Lovćen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~LOV 3–2 BER · LOV 0–0 BER · BER 1–1 LOV · LOV 0–4 BER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 16 Sept

BERANE

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 1–5

LOVĆEN

LWLWLW2–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mladost Lješkopolje	12	+7	23
2	Jedinstvo	11	+4	20
3	Zeta	11	+3	18
4	Grbalj	11	+3	16
5	Iskra	11	+1	16
6	Rudar	12	0	16
7	Lovćen	11	−2	16
8	Kom	10	+3	15
9	Mogren	12	−1	11
10	Berane	11	−18	2