Sutjeska v Jezero prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SutjeskaDrawJezero

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sutjeska 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sutjeska are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sutjeska 57%, draw 25%, Jezero 18%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Sutjeska v JezeroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sutjeska win57%

Draw25%

Jezero win18%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Gradski

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sutjeska

Jezero

4Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

Last match: 23 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sutjeska	12	+8	19
9	Jezero	12	−7	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sutjeska winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Sutjeska a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sutjeska v Jezero~~1.68 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 8 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 11~~3 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sutjeska win	57%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Jezero win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Sutjeska or draw	82%	–	–
Sutjeska clean sheet	44%	–	–
Jezero clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 8.8 6.3 2.8 1 13.2 11.7 4.7 2 11.4 9.4 3.9 3 6.4 5.3 2.2 4 2.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sutjeska down, Jezero across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sutjeska at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Jezero away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Sutjeska, 0.83 for Jezero. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JEZ 0–0 SUT · SUT 1–1 JEZ · JEZ 1–1 SUT · SUT 1–0 JEZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 8 Sept

SUTJESKA

WWWDWD1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 1–1

JEZERO

LDLDDL0–3 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	12	+6	21
2	Mornar	12	+6	20
3	Sutjeska	12	+8	19
4	Buducnost Podgorica	12	+5	19
5	Bokelj	11	+1	18
6	Dečić	11	0	15
7	Mladost DG	12	−10	12
8	Petrovac	11	−2	11
9	Jezero	12	−7	11
10	Arsenal Tivat	11	−7	8