Sutjeska v Bokelj prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Sutjeska 4–0 Bokelj SUTJESKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sutjeska win~~55%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.308

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.312

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sutjeska win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sutjeska was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–27–18
1′KICK-OFF Sutjeska v Bokelj
6′We published Sutjeska at 55%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Sutjeska 1–0 Bokelj
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Sutjeska win: 55% at kick-off, 82% now
7′Sutjeska find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Sutjeska
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Sutjeska
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Bokelj
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
47′HALF-TIME Sutjeska 1–0 Bokelj
47′SECOND HALF Sutjeska 1–0 Bokelj
50′We published Sutjeska at 55%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Sutjeska 2–0 Bokelj
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Sutjeska win: 55% at kick-off, 97% now
52′A goal for Sutjeska on 51′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′We published Sutjeska at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sutjeska 3–0 Bokelj
70′Sutjeska score on 70′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Sutjeska
86′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Sutjeska 4–0 Bokelj
87′Sutjeska find the net on 87′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
91′Full time, 4–0. We called Sutjeska at 55% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sutjeska 4–0 Bokelj
FTSutjeska 4–0 Bokelj · Sutjeska win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sutjeska are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sutjeska 55%, draw 27%, Bokelj 18%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Sutjeska v BokeljBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sutjeska win55%

Draw27%

Bokelj win18%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Gradski

Line-ups

Sutjeska

Bokelj

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sutjeska

Bokelj

5Days since last match5

Last match: 14 Oct · Cup (Montenegro)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sutjeska	10	+4	15
5	Bokelj	9	+3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sutjeska

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Giljen

2 A. Golubovic

7 A. Boljevic

6 D. Hocko

9 P. Anicic

15 B. Kopitovic

21 D. Cetkovic

22 A. Raznatovic

72 A. Babic

77 M. Simun

99 M. Mrvaljevic

Coach · Milorad Pekovic

Substitutes

12 · T. Djurovic

4 · M. Vracar

10 · B. Toskovic

11 · V. Cavor

19 · A. Scekic

20 · J. Cadjenovic

25 · M. Djukanovic

30 · A. Kecojevic

55 · S. Babic

Bokelj

Formation not confirmed

88 S. Vukcevic

6 N. Radusinovic

7 D. Perovic

17 S. Mrsulja

18 B. Cetkovic

20 D. Talovic

21 D. Dinga

24 B. Nurkovic

27 Marcondele

29 M. Cavor

77 V. Hugo

Coach · Nenad Brnovic

Substitutes

1 · D. Cetkovic

4 · A. Kumburovic

8 · F. Mukovic

9 · M. Kuc

10 · I. Pocek

11 · L. Maras

15 · N. Djurovic

30 · V. Bubanja

33 · B. Djordjevic

Our number · sutjeska winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market55%

Us55%

~~Market~~55%

We make Sutjeska a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sutjeska v Bokelj~~1.52 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~4 v 5

~~The market · Sutjeska win~~55% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sutjeska win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sutjeska win	55%	55%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Bokelj win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	40%	40%	0
Both teams to score	42%	42%	0
Over 1.5 goals	67%	65%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
Sutjeska or draw	82%	82%	0
Sutjeska clean sheet	47%	–	–
Bokelj clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 10.8 7.3 3.0 1 15.1 12.1 4.4 2 11.8 8.8 3.4 3 6.0 4.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sutjeska down, Bokelj across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 967 First League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sutjeska at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bokelj away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Sutjeska, 0.76 for Bokelj. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BOK 1–0 SUT · BOK 2–3 SUT · SUT 2–1 BOK · BOK 4–5 SUT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 23 Aug

SUTJESKA

WDWWWD5–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

BOKELJ

DDLWDW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buducnost Podgorica	11	+5	18
2	Otrant-Olympic	10	+5	17
3	Mornar	11	+3	17
4	Sutjeska	10	+4	15
5	Bokelj	9	+3	15
6	Dečić	10	+2	15
7	Mladost DG	11	−7	12
8	Jezero	11	−6	11
9	Petrovac	9	−2	8
10	Arsenal Tivat	10	−7	7