Petrovac v Mladost DG prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PetrovacDrawMladost DG

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Petrovac 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Petrovac are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Petrovac 53%, draw 25%, Mladost DG 22%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Petrovac v Mladost DGBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Petrovac win53%

Draw25%

Mladost DG win22%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Mitar Mico Golis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Petrovac

Mladost DG

5Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

Last match: 22 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Mladost DG	12	−10	12
8	Petrovac	11	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petrovac winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Petrovac a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Petrovac v Mladost DG~~1.68 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Petrovac win

Published at 51%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Petrovac win	53%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Mladost DG win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Petrovac or draw	78%	–	–
Petrovac clean sheet	37%	–	–
Mladost DG clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.5 6.4 3.4 1 11.1 11.9 5.7 2 9.7 9.5 4.7 3 5.4 5.3 2.7 4 2.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Petrovac down, Mladost DG across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Petrovac at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mladost DG away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Petrovac, 0.99 for Mladost DG. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MLA 0–0 PET · MLA 1–0 PET · PET 3–1 MLA · MLA 1–0 PET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 4 Sept

PETROVAC

DDLLLW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 2–1

MLADOST DG

WLLDDL1–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	12	+6	21
2	Mornar	12	+6	20
3	Sutjeska	12	+8	19
4	Buducnost Podgorica	12	+5	19
5	Bokelj	11	+1	18
6	Dečić	11	0	15
7	Mladost DG	12	−10	12
8	Petrovac	11	−2	11
9	Jezero	12	−7	11
10	Arsenal Tivat	11	−7	8