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Model 1.2

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Otrant-Olympic v Sutjeska

Otrant-Olympic
1–1Full time
Sutjeska

First League · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Otrant-Olympic 1–1 Sutjeska SUTJESKA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Sutjeska win41%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.814
The market’s Brier score0.756

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sutjeska win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Sutjeska 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 33–27–41
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Otrant-Olympic v Sutjeska
  4. 9′We said Sutjeska at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 13–19–68
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Otrant-Olympic 0–1 Sutjeska
  6. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Sutjeska win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
  7. 10′Sutjeska score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–19–68
  8. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Otrant-Olympic 1–1 Sutjeska
  9. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Sutjeska win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
  10. 25′Otrant-Olympic find the net on 24′. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–32–37
  11. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sutjeska win 36%)
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Otrant-Olympic 1–1 Sutjeska
  13. 46′HALF-TIME Otrant-Olympic 1–1 Sutjeska
  14. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Sutjeska
  15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Otrant-Olympic · On: L. Lambulic · Off: Caique Chagas
  16. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Sutjeska win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  17. 54′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 25–45–30
  18. 55′We said Sutjeska at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 25–45–29
  19. 66′We said Sutjeska at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 21–55–24
  20. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Sutjeska win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
  21. 73′We said Sutjeska at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 17–64–19
  22. 79′We said Sutjeska at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
  23. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Sutjeska win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  24. 84′We said Sutjeska at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 7–84–8
  25. 90′We said Sutjeska at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  26. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Sutjeska
  27. 93′1–1 at the end. Our 41% on Sutjeska misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  28. FTFULL TIME Otrant-Olympic 1–1 Sutjeska
  29. FTOtrant-Olympic 1–1 Sutjeska · Sutjeska win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sutjeska are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Otrant-Olympic 33%, draw 26%, Sutjeska 41%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Otrant-Olympic v SutjeskaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Otrant-Olympic win33%
Draw26%
Sutjeska win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Otrant-Olympic

Sutjeska

5Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

Last match: 19 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Otrant-Olympic11+620
4Sutjeska11+818

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sutjeska winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
41% The market38%
Us41%
Market38%

We make Sutjeska a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Otrant-Olympic v Sutjeska1.27 – 1.44
Form · last six in First League this season · since 4 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 20 v 181 v 4
The market · Sutjeska win38% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:20
Our probability · Sutjeska win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Otrant-Olympic win33%33%0
Draw26%29%−3
Sutjeska win41%38%+3
Over 2.5 goals51%46%+5
Both teams to score55%52%+3
Over 1.5 goals75%70%+5
Over 3.5 goals29%27%+2
Otrant-Olympic or draw59%62%−3
Otrant-Olympic clean sheet24%––
Sutjeska clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 7.3 9.2 6.9 3.4 1 8.0 12.5 8.6 4.1 2 5.4 7.6 5.4 2.6 3 2.3 3.3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Otrant-Olympic down, Sutjeska across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsSUT 1–4 OTR · SUT 2–0 OTR · OTR 0–2 SUT · SUT 0–0 OTR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 4 Sept

OTRANT-OLYMPIC

WLWWDW2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

SUTJESKA

DWWWDW0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Otrant-Olympic11+620
2Mornar12+620
3Buducnost Podgorica12+519
4Sutjeska11+818
5Bokelj11+118
6Dečić11015
7Mladost DG12−1012
8Petrovac11−211
9Jezero12−711
10Arsenal Tivat11−78

The competition's standings before kick-off.