Mornar v Mladost DG prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 17:01

Mornar 4–1 Mladost DG MORNAR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mornar win~~55%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.301

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mornar win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mornar was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
1′KICK-OFF Mornar v Mladost DG
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Mladost DG
10′A goal for Mornar on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Mornar 1–0 Mladost DG
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Mornar win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
11′We published Mornar at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Mornar
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–5
36′Mladost DG score on 35′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 46–35–19
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Mornar 1–1 Mladost DG
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Mornar win: 55% at kick-off, 46% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Mornar win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
43′We said Mornar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–38–19
45′HALF-TIME Mornar 1–1 Mladost DG
46′SECOND HALF Mornar 1–1 Mladost DG
49′Mornar find the net on 49′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Mornar 2–1 Mladost DG
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Mornar win: 55% at kick-off, 82% now
50′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–15–3
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mornar · On: F. Mitrovic · Off: P. Vukcevic
57′A goal for Mornar on 57′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Mornar 3–1 Mladost DG
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Mornar win: 55% at kick-off, 97% now
58′We published Mornar at 55%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
59′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mladost DG · On: V. Mijovic · Off: K. Radunovic
66′Mornar score on 66′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
66′We published Mornar at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Mornar 4–1 Mladost DG
67′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
67′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Mladost DG · On: D. Mugosa · Off: N. Pavlicevic
73′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mornar · On: M. Rovcanin · Off: S. Denkovic
73′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mornar · On: A. Kaludjerovic · Off: J. Dasic
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Mladost DG
FTFULL TIME Mornar 4–1 Mladost DG
FTMornar 4–1 Mladost DG · Mornar win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mornar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mornar 55%, draw 25%, Mladost DG 20%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Mornar v Mladost DGBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mornar win55%

Draw25%

Mladost DG win20%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Topolica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mornar

Mladost DG

5Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

Last match: 18 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mornar	11	+3	17
7	Mladost DG	11	−7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mornar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

55% The market61%

Us55%

~~Market~~61%

We make Mornar a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mornar v Mladost DG~~1.68 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~4 v 7

~~The market · Mornar win~~61% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mornar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mornar win	55%	61%	−6
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Mladost DG win	20%	16%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
Mornar or draw	80%	84%	−4
Mornar clean sheet	41%	–	–
Mladost DG clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 8.2 6.4 3.1 1 12.4 11.8 5.1 2 10.7 9.5 4.2 3 6.0 5.3 2.4 4 2.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mornar down, Mladost DG across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 969 First League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.56 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mornar at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mladost DG away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Mornar, 0.90 for Mladost DG. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.56

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~8 of 9

~~Last meetings~~MLA 2–3 MOR · MLA 1–2 MOR · MOR 3–0 MLA · MLA 1–3 MOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 3 Sept

MORNAR

WLLDDW2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1

MLADOST DG

WWLLDD2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	11	+6	20
2	Sutjeska	11	+8	18
3	Buducnost Podgorica	11	+5	18
4	Mornar	11	+3	17
5	Dečić	10	+2	15
6	Bokelj	10	−1	15
7	Mladost DG	11	−7	12
8	Jezero	11	−6	11
9	Petrovac	10	−3	8
10	Arsenal Tivat	10	−7	7