Mladost DG v Jezero prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Mladost DG 0–0 Jezero MLADOST DG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mladost DG win~~40%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.810

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mladost DG win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mladost DG was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
1′KICK-OFF Mladost DG v Jezero
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mladost DG win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Mladost DG 0–0 Jezero
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Mladost DG
46′SECOND HALF Mladost DG 0–0 Jezero
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Mladost DG win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–46–25
57′We said Mladost DG at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–47–25
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Jezero
65′We said Mladost DG at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–21
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Mladost DG win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
73′We said Mladost DG at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
79′We said Mladost DG at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Mladost DG win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Mladost DG win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
84′We said Mladost DG at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–84–7
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Mladost DG
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Jezero
90′We said Mladost DG at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Mladost DG
FTFULL TIME Mladost DG 0–0 Jezero
FTMladost DG 0–0 Jezero · Mladost DG win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mladost DG are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mladost DG 40%, draw 27%, Jezero 33%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Mladost DG v JezeroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mladost DG win40%

Draw27%

Jezero win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueDG Arena

Line-ups

Mladost DG

Jezero

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mladost DG

Jezero

4Days since last match5

Last match: 14 Oct · Cup (Montenegro)

Last match: 13 Oct · Cup (Montenegro)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Mladost DG	10	−7	11
8	Jezero	10	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mladost DG

Formation not confirmed

25 P. Radulovic

8 A. Cepic

9 D. Mugosa

10 A. Jovanovic

27 S. Almeida

28 N. Cordoba

29 J. Roganovic

32 S. Radinovic

35 V. Mijovic

37 L. Pejovic

44 J. Nikolic

Coach · Aleksandar Nedovic

Substitutes

33 · U. Jovanovic

4 · N. Jovicic

6 · Z. Ceklic

11 · N. Pavlicevic

16 · J. Torrente

18 · O. Djinovic

66 · S. Mijovic

77 · M. Lalevic

78 · K. Radunovic

Jezero

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Akovic

2 A. Osmanovic

4 N. Fatic

6 N. Jovicevic

7 A. Skrijelj

8 I. Redzepagic

9 E. Redzepagic

10 U. Bulatovic

11 I. Tucevic

37 N. Krivokapic

45 M. Raicevic

Coach · Rade Petrovic-Njegos

Substitutes

50 · I. Asanovic

3 · M. Kojic

5 · M. Cuestas

16 · A. Nishimura

22 · M. Bojovic

29 · V. Terzic

30 · D. Jovanovic

55 · T. Otsu

80 · B. Boricic

Our number · mladost dg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market47%

Us40%

~~Market~~47%

We make Mladost DG a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mladost DG v Jezero~~1.42 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~7 v 8

~~The market · Mladost DG win~~47% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mladost DG win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mladost DG win	40%	47%	−7
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Jezero win	33%	25%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	50%	47%	+3
Both teams to score	54%	51%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	27%	+1
Mladost DG or draw	67%	75%	−8
Mladost DG clean sheet	29%	–	–
Jezero clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.4 8.3 5.5 2.3 1 9.3 12.6 7.6 3.3 2 6.9 8.6 5.4 2.3 3 3.3 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mladost DG down, Jezero across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 965 First League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mladost DG at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Jezero away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Mladost DG, 1.27 for Jezero. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JEZ 1–0 MLA · JEZ 2–2 MLA · MLA 3–1 JEZ · MLA 0–2 JEZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug

MLADOST DG

LWWLLD1–5 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2

JEZERO

LWLDLD1–2 · 5–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	10	+5	17
2	Mornar	11	+3	17
3	Buducnost Podgorica	10	+4	15
4	Sutjeska	10	+4	15
5	Dečić	9	+3	15
6	Bokelj	9	+3	15
7	Mladost DG	10	−7	11
8	Jezero	10	−6	10
9	Petrovac	9	−2	8
10	Arsenal Tivat	10	−7	7