Jezero v Petrovac prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Jezero 1–2 Petrovac JEZERO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jezero win~~38%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.568

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jezero win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Jezero 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Jezero v Petrovac
13′We said Jezero at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Jezero 0–1 Petrovac
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Jezero win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Petrovac win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Jezero win 36%)
14′Petrovac find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–64
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Petrovac
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Petrovac
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Jezero
38′We said Jezero at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Jezero win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Jezero 0–1 Petrovac
45′SECOND HALF Jezero 0–1 Petrovac
60′We said Jezero at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
69′We said Jezero at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Jezero 1–1 Petrovac
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Jezero win: 38% at kick-off, 19% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Petrovac win 81%)
70′A goal for Jezero on 70′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 19–64–17
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Jezero
72′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–15–83
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Jezero 1–2 Petrovac
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Jezero win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Petrovac win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 66%)
73′Petrovac score on 73′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
93′1–2 at the end. Our 38% on Jezero misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Petrovac
FTFULL TIME Jezero 1–2 Petrovac
FTJezero 1–2 Petrovac · Jezero win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jezero are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jezero 38%, draw 29%, Petrovac 33%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Jezero v PetrovacBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Jezero win38%

Draw29%

Petrovac win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Pod Racinom

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jezero

Petrovac

5Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

Last match: 19 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Jezero	11	−6	11
9	Petrovac	10	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jezero winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

38% The market32%

Us38%

~~Market~~32%

We make Jezero a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jezero v Petrovac~~1.20 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~8 v 9

~~The market · Jezero win~~32% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jezero win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jezero win	38%	32%	+6
Draw	29%	29%	0
Petrovac win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	23%	−3
Jezero or draw	67%	62%	+5
Jezero clean sheet	33%	–	–
Petrovac clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.6 10.5 6.1 2.3 1 11.4 13.6 7.2 2.7 2 7.2 7.8 4.3 3 2.9 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jezero down, Petrovac across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 971 First League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.8% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jezero at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Petrovac away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Jezero, 1.11 for Petrovac. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PET 3–0 JEZ · JEZ 1–1 PET · PET 2–1 JEZ · JEZ 1–3 PET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 29 Aug

JEZERO

WLDLDD5–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 0–0

PETROVAC

DDDLLL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	11	+6	20
2	Mornar	12	+6	20
3	Buducnost Podgorica	12	+5	19
4	Sutjeska	11	+8	18
5	Dečić	10	+2	15
6	Bokelj	10	−1	15
7	Mladost DG	12	−10	12
8	Jezero	11	−6	11
9	Petrovac	10	−3	8
10	Arsenal Tivat	11	−7	8