Dečić v Otrant-Olympic prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DečićDrawOtrant-Olympic

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dečić 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dečić are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dečić 45%, draw 28%, Otrant-Olympic 28%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Dečić v Otrant-OlympicBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Dečić win45%

Draw28%

Otrant-Olympic win28%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueTusko

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dečić

Otrant-Olympic

5Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

Last match: 24 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dečić winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Dečić a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dečić v Otrant-Olympic~~1.42 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 21~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dečić win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dečić win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Otrant-Olympic win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Dečić or draw	72%	–	–
Dečić clean sheet	35%	–	–
Otrant-Olympic clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.1 8.4 4.7 1 11.4 12.9 6.6 2.4 2 8.4 8.8 4.6 3 4.0 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dečić down, Otrant-Olympic across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 973 First League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.43 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dečić at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Otrant-Olympic away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Dečić, 1.06 for Otrant-Olympic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~OTR 0–3 DEC · DEC 1–0 OTR · OTR 1–2 DEC · DEC 2–2 OTR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept

DEČIĆ

LDLDLL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

OTRANT-OLYMPIC

LWWDWD1–2 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	12	+6	21
2	Mornar	12	+6	20
3	Sutjeska	12	+8	19
4	Buducnost Podgorica	12	+5	19
5	Bokelj	11	+1	18
6	Dečić	11	0	15
7	Mladost DG	12	−10	12
8	Petrovac	11	−2	11
9	Jezero	12	−7	11
10	Arsenal Tivat	11	−7	8