Dečić v Buducnost Podgorica prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Dečić 0–1 Buducnost Podgorica BUDUCNOST PODGORICA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Buducnost Podgorica win~~36%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.616

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Buducnost Podgorica win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Buducnost Podgorica 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 34–30–36
1′KICK-OFF Dečić v Buducnost Podgorica
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Buducnost Podgorica
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Buducnost Podgorica
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Buducnost Podgorica win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Dečić 0–0 Buducnost Podgorica
46′SECOND HALF Dečić 0–0 Buducnost Podgorica
50′Buducnost Podgorica find the net on 50′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–20–74
50′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 6–20–74
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Dečić 0–1 Buducnost Podgorica
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Buducnost Podgorica win: 36% at kick-off, 74% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Buducnost Podgorica win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
52′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Buducnost Podgorica win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
64′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Buducnost Podgorica
73′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
73′A goal for Buducnost Podgorica on 73′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Dečić 0–2 Buducnost Podgorica
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Buducnost Podgorica win: 36% at kick-off, 98% now
75′GOAL DISALLOWED · 75' Buducnost Podgorica
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Buducnost Podgorica win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
80′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Dečić
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Buducnost Podgorica
87′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Buducnost Podgorica win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Dečić 0–1 Buducnost Podgorica
FTDečić 0–1 Buducnost Podgorica · Buducnost Podgorica win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Buducnost Podgorica just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dečić 34%, draw 30%, Buducnost Podgorica 36%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Dečić v Buducnost PodgoricaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dečić win34%

Draw30%

Buducnost Podgorica win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueTusko

Line-ups

Dečić

Buducnost Podgorica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dečić

Buducnost Podgorica

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · Cup (Montenegro)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Buducnost Podgorica	10	+4	15
5	Dečić	9	+3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dečić

Formation not confirmed

25 D. Radosevic

7 M. Gjolaj

8 A. Cetkovic

15 P. Ljuljdjuraj

16 M. Bozanovic

17 L. Ujkaj

22 J. Dresaj

23 S. Stanisavic

27 D. Kontic

29 N. Braunovic

32 B. Radusinovic

Coach · Ivan Brnovic

Substitutes

33 · M. Dragojevic

4 · A. Vuljaj

9 · I. Camaj

10 · M. Djokaj

14 · A. Adzovic

50 · J. Mugosa

72 · P. Ivanovic

74 · P. Pavlicevic

88 · M. Jukovic

Buducnost Podgorica

Formation not confirmed

21 F. Domazetovic

5 I. Serikov

6 L. Popovic

9 N. Kovinic

20 M. Raspopovic

26 P. Vujovic

32 A. Pupovic

44 D. Vukanic

70 C. Ondong-Mba

88 S. Osman

99 M. Jovanovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Mijatovic

11 · I. Bulatovic

13 · N. Ajkovic

14 · M. Rakcevic

16 · Z. Mugosa

17 · M. Vusurovic

19 · A. Causevic

55 · A. Orahovac

56 · G. Makrydakis

Our number · buducnost podgorica winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market26%

Us36%

~~Market~~26%

We make Buducnost Podgorica a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dečić v Buducnost Podgorica~~1.09 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~5 v 3

~~The market · Buducnost Podgorica win~~26% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Buducnost Podgorica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dečić win	34%	44%	−10
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Buducnost Podgorica win	36%	26%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
Both teams to score	45%	45%	0
Over 1.5 goals	65%	64%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	19%	20%	−1
Dečić or draw	64%	74%	−10
Dečić clean sheet	33%	–	–
Buducnost Podgorica clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.5 11.8 6.9 2.6 1 11.4 13.7 7.4 2.8 2 6.5 7.2 4.1 3 2.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dečić down, Buducnost Podgorica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 965 First League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dečić at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Buducnost Podgorica away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Dečić, 1.13 for Buducnost Podgorica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUD 0–2 DEC · DEC 0–0 BUD · BUD 0–0 DEC · DEC 1–0 BUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 23 Aug

DEČIĆ

WWLDLD3–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

BUDUCNOST PODGORICA

DLWWWD0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	10	+5	17
2	Mornar	11	+3	17
3	Buducnost Podgorica	10	+4	15
4	Sutjeska	10	+4	15
5	Dečić	9	+3	15
6	Bokelj	9	+3	15
7	Mladost DG	11	−7	12
8	Jezero	11	−6	11
9	Petrovac	9	−2	8
10	Arsenal Tivat	10	−7	7