Buducnost Podgorica v Mornar prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Buducnost PodgoricaDrawMornar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Buducnost Podgorica 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Buducnost Podgorica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Buducnost Podgorica 47%, draw 28%, Mornar 25%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Buducnost Podgorica v MornarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Buducnost Podgorica win47%

Draw28%

Mornar win25%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenuePodgorica City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Buducnost Podgorica

Mornar

5Days since last match5

Last match: 22 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mornar	12	+6	20
4	Buducnost Podgorica	12	+5	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · buducnost podgorica winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Buducnost Podgorica a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Buducnost Podgorica v Mornar~~1.43 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 8 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 20~~4 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Buducnost Podgorica win

Published at 48%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buducnost Podgorica win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Mornar win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Buducnost Podgorica or draw	75%	–	–
Buducnost Podgorica clean sheet	38%	–	–
Mornar clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.8 8.3 4.3 1 12.4 13.0 6.1 2 9.2 8.9 4.3 3 4.4 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Buducnost Podgorica down, Mornar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Buducnost Podgorica at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mornar away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Buducnost Podgorica, 0.97 for Mornar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MOR 2–1 BUD · BUD 0–0 MOR · MOR 3–0 BUD · BUD 2–0 MOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 8 Sept

BUDUCNOST PODGORICA

WWWDWD3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–3

MORNAR

LLDDWW0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	12	+6	21
2	Mornar	12	+6	20
3	Sutjeska	12	+8	19
4	Buducnost Podgorica	12	+5	19
5	Bokelj	11	+1	18
6	Dečić	11	0	15
7	Mladost DG	12	−10	12
8	Petrovac	11	−2	11
9	Jezero	12	−7	11
10	Arsenal Tivat	11	−7	8