Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › First League › Buducnost Podgorica v Arsenal Tivat

Back
Montenegro flag

Buducnost Podgorica v Arsenal Tivat

Buducnost Podgorica
3–3Full time
Arsenal Tivat

First League · THU 22 OCT · Podgorica City Stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:00
Buducnost Podgorica 3–3 Arsenal Tivat BUDUCNOST PODGORICA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Buducnost Podgorica win61%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.971
The market’s Brier score1.030

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Buducnost Podgorica win at 61%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Buducnost Podgorica was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–24–15
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Buducnost Podgorica v Arsenal Tivat
  4. 17′We published Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  5. 17′Buducnost Podgorica score on 17′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Buducnost Podgorica 1–0 Arsenal Tivat
  7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–3
  9. 32′Arsenal Tivat find the net on 32′. 1–1. 1–1 · 52–33–16
  10. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Buducnost Podgorica 1–1 Arsenal Tivat
  11. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 52% now
  12. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
  13. 38′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–35–15
  14. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Arsenal Tivat
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Buducnost Podgorica 1–1 Arsenal Tivat
  16. 46′HALF-TIME Buducnost Podgorica 1–1 Arsenal Tivat
  17. 48′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–41–15
  18. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
  19. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Buducnost Podgorica win 43%)
  20. 57′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–48–14
  21. 61′We published Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–1 · 87–11–1
  22. 61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 87–11–1
  23. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Buducnost Podgorica 2–1 Arsenal Tivat
  24. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 87% now
  25. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Buducnost Podgorica win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 51%)
  26. 62′A goal for Buducnost Podgorica on 61′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–11–1
  27. 63′We published Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  28. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Buducnost Podgorica 3–1 Arsenal Tivat
  29. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 99% now
  30. 64′Buducnost Podgorica score on 64′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  31. 64′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  32. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Arsenal Tivat
  33. 76′We published Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  34. 79′We published Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. Our model now makes it 93%. 3–2 · 93–7–0
  35. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Buducnost Podgorica 3–2 Arsenal Tivat
  36. 80′Arsenal Tivat find the net on 79′. 3–2. 3–2 · 93–6–0
  37. 81′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  38. 92′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–95–2
  39. 92′A goal for Arsenal Tivat on 90′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 4–95–2
  40. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Buducnost Podgorica 3–3 Arsenal Tivat
  41. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 4% now
  42. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Buducnost Podgorica win 98%)
  43. 93′6 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 3–96–1
  44. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Arsenal Tivat
  45. FTFULL TIME Buducnost Podgorica 3–3 Arsenal Tivat
  46. FTBuducnost Podgorica 3–3 Arsenal Tivat · Buducnost Podgorica win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Buducnost Podgorica are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Buducnost Podgorica 61%, draw 24%, Arsenal Tivat 15%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Buducnost Podgorica v Arsenal TivatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Buducnost Podgorica win61%
Draw24%
Arsenal Tivat win15%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePodgorica City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Buducnost Podgorica

Arsenal Tivat

4Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

Last match: 17 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Buducnost Podgorica11+518
10Arsenal Tivat10−77

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · buducnost podgorica winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off
61% The market64%
Us61%
Market64%

We make Buducnost Podgorica a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Buducnost Podgorica v Arsenal Tivat1.75 – 0.75
Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 AugW4 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 18 v 73 v 10
The market · Buducnost Podgorica win64% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 18 OCT 01:2322 OCT 16:32
Our probability · Buducnost Podgorica win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Buducnost Podgorica win61%64%−3
Draw24%23%+1
Arsenal Tivat win15%13%+2
Over 2.5 goals45%49%−4
Both teams to score44%44%0
Over 1.5 goals71%71%0
Over 3.5 goals24%28%−4
Buducnost Podgorica or draw85%87%−2
Buducnost Podgorica clean sheet48%––
Arsenal Tivat clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%
0123450 8.8 5.8 2.3 1 14.0 11.1 4.0 2 12.5 9.3 3.5 3 7.3 5.4 2.0 4 3.2 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Buducnost Podgorica down, Arsenal Tivat across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsARS 0–0 BUD · BUD 0–2 ARS · ARS 1–0 BUD · BUD 4–2 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 Aug

BUDUCNOST PODGORICA

LWWWDW0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

ARSENAL TIVAT

LLLWLL1–2 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Otrant-Olympic11+620
2Sutjeska11+818
3Buducnost Podgorica11+518
4Mornar11+317
5Dečić10+215
6Bokelj10−115
7Mladost DG11−712
8Jezero11−611
9Petrovac10−38
10Arsenal Tivat10−77

The competition's standings before kick-off.