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Buducnost Podgorica v Arsenal Tivat
Buducnost Podgorica
Arsenal TivatFirst League · THU 22 OCT · Podgorica City Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Buducnost Podgorica win at 61%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Buducnost Podgorica was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–24–15
- 1′KICK-OFF Buducnost Podgorica v Arsenal Tivat
- 17′We published Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
- 17′Buducnost Podgorica score on 17′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
- 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Buducnost Podgorica 1–0 Arsenal Tivat
- 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–3
- 32′Arsenal Tivat find the net on 32′. 1–1. 1–1 · 52–33–16
- 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Buducnost Podgorica 1–1 Arsenal Tivat
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 52% now
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
- 38′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–35–15
- 40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Arsenal Tivat
- 45′SECOND HALF Buducnost Podgorica 1–1 Arsenal Tivat
- 46′HALF-TIME Buducnost Podgorica 1–1 Arsenal Tivat
- 48′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–41–15
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
- 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Buducnost Podgorica win 43%)
- 57′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–48–14
- 61′We published Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–1 · 87–11–1
- 61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 87–11–1
- 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Buducnost Podgorica 2–1 Arsenal Tivat
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 87% now
- 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Buducnost Podgorica win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 51%)
- 62′A goal for Buducnost Podgorica on 61′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–11–1
- 63′We published Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Buducnost Podgorica 3–1 Arsenal Tivat
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 99% now
- 64′Buducnost Podgorica score on 64′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 64′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Arsenal Tivat
- 76′We published Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 79′We published Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. Our model now makes it 93%. 3–2 · 93–7–0
- 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Buducnost Podgorica 3–2 Arsenal Tivat
- 80′Arsenal Tivat find the net on 79′. 3–2. 3–2 · 93–6–0
- 81′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 94–6–0
- 92′We said Buducnost Podgorica at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–95–2
- 92′A goal for Arsenal Tivat on 90′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 4–95–2
- 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Buducnost Podgorica 3–3 Arsenal Tivat
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Buducnost Podgorica win: 61% at kick-off, 4% now
- 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Buducnost Podgorica win 98%)
- 93′6 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 3–96–1
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Arsenal Tivat
- FTFULL TIME Buducnost Podgorica 3–3 Arsenal Tivat
- FTBuducnost Podgorica 3–3 Arsenal Tivat · Buducnost Podgorica win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Buducnost Podgorica are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Buducnost Podgorica 61%, draw 24%, Arsenal Tivat 15%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 44%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Buducnost Podgorica win61%
Arsenal Tivat win15%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00
RoundMatchday 12
VenuePodgorica City Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Buducnost PodgoricaMIN
Arsenal TivatEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Buducnost Podgorica
Arsenal Tivat
Last match: 18 Oct · First League (Montenegro)
Last match: 17 Oct · First League (Montenegro)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Buducnost Podgorica a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 60%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buducnost Podgorica win | 61% | 64% | −3 |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | +1 |
| Arsenal Tivat win | 15% | 13% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 49% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 28% | −4 |
| Buducnost Podgorica or draw | 85% | 87% | −2 |
| Buducnost Podgorica clean sheet | 48% | – | – |
| Arsenal Tivat clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 Aug
BUDUCNOST PODGORICA
ARSENAL TIVAT
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 11 | +6 | 20 |
| 2 | Sutjeska | 11 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Buducnost Podgorica | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Mornar | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 | Dečić | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Bokelj | 10 | −1 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 11 | −7 | 12 |
| 8 | Jezero | 11 | −6 | 11 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 10 | −3 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 10 | −7 | 7 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Otrant-Olympic
Sutjeska
Mornar
Dečić
Bokelj
Mladost DG
Jezero
Petrovac