Bokelj v Dečić prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Bokelj 2–0 Dečić DEČIĆ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dečić win~~36%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.689

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.689

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dečić win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dečić 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 32–32–36
1′KICK-OFF Bokelj v Dečić
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Dečić win 35%)
26′We said Dečić at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 68–22–10
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Bokelj 1–0 Dečić
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Dečić win: 36% at kick-off, 10% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Bokelj win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 39%)
28′A goal for Bokelj on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–10
29′We said Dečić at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Dečić
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Dečić win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
45′HALF-TIME Bokelj 1–0 Dečić
45′SECOND HALF Bokelj 1–0 Dečić
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Dečić
55′We said Dečić at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Dečić
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Dečić
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Bokelj
75′Bokelj score on 75′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Bokelj 2–0 Dečić
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Bokelj
90′2–0 at the end. Our 36% on Dečić misses, and the record keeps it. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Bokelj 2–0 Dečić
FTBokelj 2–0 Dečić · Dečić win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dečić just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bokelj 32%, draw 32%, Dečić 36%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Bokelj v DečićBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bokelj win32%

Draw32%

Dečić win36%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion pod Vrmcem

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bokelj

Dečić

4Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

Last match: 18 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dečić	10	+2	15
6	Bokelj	10	−1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dečić winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

36% The market37%

Us36%

~~Market~~37%

We make Dečić a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bokelj v Dečić~~0.96 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~6 v 5

~~The market · Dečić win~~37% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dečić win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bokelj win	32%	32%	0
Draw	32%	30%	+2
Dečić win	36%	37%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	32%	40%	−8
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	59%	65%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	14%	21%	−7
Bokelj or draw	64%	63%	+1
Bokelj clean sheet	36%	–	–
Dečić clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.4%

0123450 14.4 13.6 7.2 2.5 1 12.6 13.9 6.8 2.4 2 6.3 6.4 3.3 3 2.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bokelj down, Dečić across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 971 First League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.8% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bokelj at home: 1.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dečić away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Bokelj, 1.03 for Dečić. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DEC 1–0 BOK · BOK 1–0 DEC · DEC 0–0 BOK · BOK 1–1 DEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 Aug

BOKELJ

DLWDWL0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–4

DEČIĆ

WLDLDL2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	11	+6	20
2	Mornar	12	+6	20
3	Buducnost Podgorica	12	+5	19
4	Sutjeska	11	+8	18
5	Dečić	10	+2	15
6	Bokelj	10	−1	15
7	Mladost DG	12	−10	12
8	Jezero	11	−6	11
9	Petrovac	10	−3	8
10	Arsenal Tivat	11	−7	8