Arsenal Tivat v Mornar prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Arsenal Tivat 1–2 Mornar MORNAR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mornar win~~40%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.542

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.351

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mornar win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mornar was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 29–31–40
1′KICK-OFF Arsenal Tivat v Mornar
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Mornar
20′Arsenal Tivat score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–24–13
20′We said Mornar at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 63–24–13
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Arsenal Tivat 1–0 Mornar
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Mornar win: 40% at kick-off, 13% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Arsenal Tivat win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Mornar win 13%)
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Arsenal Tivat
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 65–24–11
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Mornar win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
38′We said Mornar at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
45′HALF-TIME Arsenal Tivat 1–0 Mornar
46′SECOND HALF Arsenal Tivat 1–0 Mornar
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Mornar
59′Mornar find the net on 59′. 1–1. 1–1 · 20–55–25
59′We said Mornar at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 20–55–25
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Arsenal Tivat 1–1 Mornar
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Mornar win: 40% at kick-off, 25% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Arsenal Tivat win 20%)
61′Mornar level it on 60′ through Y. Yao. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–57–24
61′We said Mornar at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–57–24
63′A goal for Mornar on 63′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–16–82
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Arsenal Tivat 1–2 Mornar
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Mornar win: 40% at kick-off, 82% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Mornar win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
64′We published Mornar at 40%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–2 · 2–16–82
64′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–16–82
70′We published Mornar at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
78′We published Mornar at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Mornar win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
85′We published Mornar at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Arsenal Tivat
FTFULL TIME Arsenal Tivat 1–2 Mornar
FTArsenal Tivat 1–2 Mornar · Mornar win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mornar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arsenal Tivat 30%, draw 31%, Mornar 40%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Arsenal Tivat v MornarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arsenal Tivat win30%

Draw31%

Mornar win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion u Parku

Line-ups

Arsenal Tivat

Mornar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arsenal Tivat

Mornar

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Cup (Montenegro)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Mornar	10	+2	14
10	Arsenal Tivat	9	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arsenal Tivat

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Zogovic

5 G. Petovic

8 I. Sahman

9 I. Vukcevic

15 P. Malisic

16 V. Kascelan

23 S. Sesay

26 M. Zivanovic

29 K. Vujacic

77 S. Mandic

88 A. Abdullahi

Coach · Radislav Dragicevic

Substitutes

12 · I. Bozinovic

6 · V. Kascelan

7 · A. Golub

14 · R. Rozin

19 · M. Djukanovic

24 · N. Erakovic

27 · A. Kralj

99 · S. Labovic

98 · A. Petrovic

Mornar

Formation not confirmed

24 B. Krijestarac

6 I. Martinovic

8 M. Djurisic

9 A. Soussi

10 D. Skrijelj

11 Y. Yao

16 F. Mitrovic

17 J. Dasic

32 V. Ljutica

33 N. Stijepovic

97 P. Vukcevic

Coach · Vesco Stesevic

Substitutes

1 · R. Dubljevic

13 · V. Stojanovic

5 · D. Dakic

7 · S. Denkovic

20 · N. Medojevic

21 · M. Rovcanin

22 · L. Djuretic

23 · B. Dubljevic

25 · B. Milosevic

Our number · mornar winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market52%

Us40%

~~Market~~52%

We make Mornar a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arsenal Tivat v Mornar~~0.96 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~10 v 6

~~The market · Mornar win~~52% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mornar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal Tivat win	30%	20%	+10
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Mornar win	40%	52%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
Both teams to score	42%	44%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	63%	66%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	21%	−4
Arsenal Tivat or draw	60%	48%	+12
Arsenal Tivat clean sheet	32%	–	–
Mornar clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.7 13.5 8.1 3.2 1 11.0 13.7 7.6 3.0 2 5.5 6.3 3.7 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal Tivat down, Mornar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 964 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal Tivat at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mornar away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Arsenal Tivat, 1.16 for Mornar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MOR 0–0 ARS · ARS 0–1 MOR · MOR 1–2 ARS · ARS 0–1 MOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 23 Aug

ARSENAL TIVAT

DLLLWL0–0 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

MORNAR

DWLLDD1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	10	+5	17
2	Buducnost Podgorica	10	+4	15
3	Sutjeska	10	+4	15
4	Dečić	9	+3	15
5	Bokelj	9	+3	15
6	Mornar	10	+2	14
7	Mladost DG	10	−7	11
8	Jezero	10	−6	10
9	Petrovac	9	−2	8
10	Arsenal Tivat	9	−6	7