Arsenal Tivat v Bokelj prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Arsenal TivatDrawBokelj

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Arsenal Tivat 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arsenal Tivat are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arsenal Tivat 39%, draw 31%, Bokelj 30%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Arsenal Tivat v BokeljBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Arsenal Tivat win39%

Draw31%

Bokelj win30%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion u Parku

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arsenal Tivat

Bokelj

6Days since last match5

Last match: 22 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

Last match: 23 Oct · First League (Montenegro)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bokelj	11	+1	18
10	Arsenal Tivat	11	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arsenal tivat winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Arsenal Tivat a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arsenal Tivat v Bokelj~~1.15 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 18~~10 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arsenal Tivat win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal Tivat win	39%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Bokelj win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Arsenal Tivat or draw	70%	–	–
Arsenal Tivat clean sheet	38%	–	–
Bokelj clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.7 11.1 5.7 1 13.1 13.8 6.5 2.1 2 7.8 7.6 3.7 3 3.0 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal Tivat down, Bokelj across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal Tivat at home: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bokelj away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Arsenal Tivat, 0.98 for Bokelj. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BOK 0–0 ARS · BOK 3–0 ARS · ARS 1–0 BOK · BOK 2–0 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 3 Sept

ARSENAL TIVAT

LLWLLD2–5 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–3

BOKELJ

LWDWLW0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Otrant-Olympic	12	+6	21
2	Mornar	12	+6	20
3	Sutjeska	12	+8	19
4	Buducnost Podgorica	12	+5	19
5	Bokelj	11	+1	18
6	Dečić	11	0	15
7	Mladost DG	12	−10	12
8	Petrovac	11	−2	11
9	Jezero	12	−7	11
10	Arsenal Tivat	11	−7	8