Sutjeska v Dečić
SutjeskaDečićCup · WED 14 OCT · Stadion Gradski
Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 0–0, the score after 90 minutes. Sutjeska won 6–5 on penalties.
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Sutjeska win at 47%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Sutjeska was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
- 1′KICK-OFF Sutjeska v Dečić
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Sutjeska win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
- 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Sutjeska win 37%)
- 45′SECOND HALF Sutjeska 0–0 Dečić
- 47′We said Sutjeska at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–45–20
- 49′We said Sutjeska at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
- 59′We said Sutjeska at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–17
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Sutjeska win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
- 67′We said Sutjeska at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
- 73′We said Sutjeska at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Sutjeska win: 47% at kick-off, 16% now
- 80′We said Sutjeska at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–79–8
- 84′We said Sutjeska at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–87–5
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Sutjeska win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
- 90′We said Sutjeska at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
- FTFULL TIME Sutjeska 0–0 Dečić
- FTSutjeska 0–0 Dečić after 90 minutes, as graded · Sutjeska win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off
Sutjeska win47%Dečić win24%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00
VenueStadion Gradski
Match timeline
All events
SutjeskaMINDečićEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Sutjeska
Dečić
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Sutjeska a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sutjeska win | 47% | 43% | +4 |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | −1 |
| Dečić win | 24% | 27% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 47% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 21% | −3 |
| Sutjeska or draw | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Sutjeska clean sheet | 42% | – | – |
| Dečić clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
21 meetings since 2021Form · last six in Cup
SUTJESKA
DEČIĆ
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jezero | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 |  Mornar | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Arsenal Tivat | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 |  Grbalj | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 |  Otrant-Olympic | 1 | −3 | 0 |
| 6 |  Lovćen | 1 | −4 | 0 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.