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Model 1.1

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Petrovac v Kom

Petrovac
2–0Full time
Kom

Cup · THU 15 OCT · Stadion Mitar Mico Golis

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:50
Petrovac 2–0 Kom PETROVAC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Petrovac win78%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.074
The market’s Brier score0.259

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Petrovac are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Petrovac 78%, draw 15%, Kom 7%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Petrovac v KomBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Petrovac win78%
Draw15%
Kom win7%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 14:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueStadion Mitar Mico Golis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Petrovac

Kom

27Days since last match4
0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petrovac winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:28 · locked at kick-off
78% The market59%
Us78%
Market59%

We make Petrovac a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Petrovac v Kom2.49 – 0.61
The market · Petrovac win59% · ours 78%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%60%70%80% 9 OCT 07:2615 OCT 13:52
Our probability · petrovac win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Petrovac win78%59%+19
Draw15%26%−11
Kom win7%15%−9
Over 2.5 goals60%40%+20
Both teams to score42%43%−1
Over 1.5 goals82%66%+16
Over 3.5 goals38%––
Petrovac or draw93%85%+9
Petrovac clean sheet54%––
Kom clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.9%
0123450 4.7 2.5 1 11.0 7.1 2.1 2 13.9 8.5 2.6 3 11.6 7.1 2.2 4 7.2 4.4 5 3.6 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Petrovac down, Kom across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season

PETROVAC

No matches in our record yet.

KOM

No matches in our record yet.