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Model 1.1

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Lovćen v Jezero

Lovćen
1–5Full time
Jezero

Cup · TUE 13 OCT · Stadion Obilica Poljana

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:00
Lovćen 1–5 Jezero JEZERO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Jezero win60%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.237
The market’s Brier score0.305

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

Lovćen win16%
Draw23%
Jezero win60%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 13:00

VenueStadion Obilica Poljana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lovćen

Jezero

356Days since last match160
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jezero winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off
60% The market55%
Us60%
Market55%

We make Jezero a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:2113 OCT 12:19
Our probability · jezero win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lovćen win16%21%−4
Draw23%24%−1
Jezero win60%55%+5
Over 2.5 goals49%49%0
Both teams to score47%50%−3
Over 1.5 goals74%74%0
Over 3.5 goals27%27%0
Lovćen or draw40%45%−5
Lovćen clean sheet16%––
Jezero clean sheet44%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.6%
0123450 7.5 12.6 11.7 7.1 3.2 1 5.6 11.0 9.7 5.9 2.7 2 2.4 4.4 4.0 2.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lovćen down, Jezero across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2020

No meetings between these two in Cup since 2020. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Cup

LOVĆEN

L1–3

JEZERO

LLDWLL1–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

No league table for this competition.