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Berane v Jedinstvo

Berane
0–5Full time
Jedinstvo

Cup · THU 15 OCT · Berane City Stadium

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:30
Berane 0–5 Jedinstvo JEDINSTVO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Jedinstvo win56%
The market said61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.292
The market’s Brier score0.229

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Jedinstvo win at 56%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Jedinstvo was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 20–24–56
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Berane v Jedinstvo
  4. 5′We published Jedinstvo at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 6–14–80
  5. 5′Jedinstvo score on 5′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–14–80
  6. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Berane 0–1 Jedinstvo
  7. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Jedinstvo win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
  8. 17′Jedinstvo find the net on 16′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  9. 17′We published Jedinstvo at 56%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  10. 17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Berane 0–2 Jedinstvo
  11. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Jedinstvo win: 56% at kick-off, 94% now
  12. 23′We published Jedinstvo at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  13. 35′A goal for Jedinstvo on 35′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  14. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Berane 0–3 Jedinstvo
  15. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Jedinstvo win: 56% at kick-off, 99% now
  16. 36′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  17. 41′Jedinstvo score on 40′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  18. 41′We published Jedinstvo at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  19. 41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Berane 0–4 Jedinstvo
  20. 43′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Berane 0–4 Jedinstvo
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Berane 0–4 Jedinstvo
  23. 93′Jedinstvo find the net on 90′. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  24. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Berane 0–5 Jedinstvo
  25. 94′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  26. FTFULL TIME Berane 0–5 Jedinstvo
  27. FTBerane 0–5 Jedinstvo · Jedinstvo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jedinstvo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Berane 20%, draw 25%, Jedinstvo 56%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Berane v JedinstvoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Berane win20%
Draw25%
Jedinstvo win56%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 14:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueBerane City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Berane

Jedinstvo

4Days since last match6
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jedinstvo winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:28 · locked at kick-off
56% The market61%
Us56%
Market61%

We make Jedinstvo a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Berane v Jedinstvo0.91 – 1.72
The market · Jedinstvo win61% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 07:2615 OCT 13:52
Our probability · jedinstvo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Berane win20%15%+5
Draw25%24%+1
Jedinstvo win56%61%−5
Over 2.5 goals49%50%−1
Both teams to score50%47%+2
Over 1.5 goals74%72%+2
Over 3.5 goals27%30%−3
Berane or draw44%39%+5
Berane clean sheet18%––
Jedinstvo clean sheet40%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%
0123450 7.6 12.0 10.6 6.1 2.6 1 6.2 11.7 9.7 5.6 2.4 2 3.0 5.2 4.4 2.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Berane down, Jedinstvo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.83
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored1 of 6
Last meetingsBER 1–2 JED · JED 1–0 BER · JED 0–0 BER · BER 0–3 JED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season

BERANE

No matches in our record yet.

JEDINSTVO

No matches in our record yet.