Ulaangom City v Khovd prediction · Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Khovd are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ulaangom City 10%, draw 9%, Khovd 81%. Over 2.5 goals 96%, both teams to score 84%.

The AI’s read on Ulaangom City v KhovdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

Ulaangom City win10%

Draw9%

Khovd win81%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ulaangom City

Khovd

4Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Khovd	7	+3	10
9	Ulaangom City	7	−24	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khovd winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 00:09 · postponed, not graded

81% The market–

Us81%

We make Khovd an 81% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–5.4, and 1–4 is the single most likely score at 4%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ulaangom City v Khovd~~2.04 – 5.37

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 10~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Khovd win

Published at 82%, 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ulaangom City win	10%	–	–
Draw	9%	–	–
Khovd win	81%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	96%	–	–
Both teams to score	84%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	99%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	91%	–	–
Ulaangom City or draw	19%	–	–
Ulaangom City clean sheet	1%	–	–
Khovd clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–4 at 4.1%

0123450 2.2 2.21 2.4 3.5 4.1 3.92 2.4 3.5 4.0 3.83 2.4 2.8 2.64 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ulaangom City down, Khovd across0–5 goals a side shown (57.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 713 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 88.2% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 6.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ulaangom City at home: 1.00 scored, 4.00 conceded a game (last 6). Khovd away: 2.67 scored, 4.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Ulaangom City, 5.37 for Khovd. Most likely score 1–4.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~6.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ULA 3–3 KHO · ULA 2–3 KHO · KHO 8–0 ULA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Sept

ULAANGOM CITY

LLLLLL1–4 · 0–5 · 1–4 · 2–4 · 0–8 · 2–4

KHOVD

LWLDWL0–6 · 8–2 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 8–0 · 1–6

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	8	+35	22
2	Central Stallions	8	+20	21
3	Deren	8	+17	17
4	Hunters	8	+14	15
5	Khovd	7	+3	10
6	Erchim	8	−19	6
7	Khovd Western	8	−21	6
8	Amtat FC	8	−25	6
9	Ulaangom City	7	−24	0