Ulaanbaatar v Khovd Western prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 11:31

Ulaanbaatar 8–0 Khovd Western ULAANBAATAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ulaanbaatar win~~89%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.020

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ulaanbaatar win at 89%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ulaanbaatar 89% before kick-off, 92% now. 0–0 · 92–5–3
1′KICK-OFF Ulaanbaatar v Khovd Western
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Ulaanbaatar 1–0 Khovd Western
3′Ulaanbaatar find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 97–2–1
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Ulaanbaatar 2–0 Khovd Western
39′A goal for Ulaanbaatar on 38′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Ulaanbaatar 3–0 Khovd Western
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Ulaanbaatar win: 89% at kick-off, 99% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Ulaanbaatar 4–0 Khovd Western
42′Ulaanbaatar find the net on 41′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Ulaanbaatar 4–0 Khovd Western
46′Ulaanbaatar ahead on 44′ through T. Altansukh. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
46′SECOND HALF Ulaanbaatar 4–0 Khovd Western
54′A goal for Ulaanbaatar on 54′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ulaanbaatar 5–0 Khovd Western
57′57′ and it is 6–0: Ulaanbaatar have scored. 6–0 · 100–0–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Ulaanbaatar 6–0 Khovd Western
58′That is 6, and we only asked for 5.6 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
60′GOAL DISALLOWED · 60' Ulaanbaatar
67′67′ and it is 6–0: Ulaanbaatar have scored. 6–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Ulaanbaatar 6–0 Khovd Western
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Ulaanbaatar 7–0 Khovd Western
89′Ulaanbaatar find the net on 88′. 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
90′7 goals already, more than the 5.6 we expected for the whole match. 7–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ulaanbaatar 8–0 Khovd Western
FTFULL TIME Ulaanbaatar 8–0 Khovd Western
FTUlaanbaatar 8–0 Khovd Western · Ulaanbaatar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 4–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Ulaanbaatar v Khovd WesternBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 08:30 · locked at kick-off

Ulaanbaatar win89%

Draw7%

Khovd Western win4%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 09:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ulaanbaatar

Khovd Western

3Days since last match4

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027/28

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ulaanbaatar	6	25	16
7	Khovd Western	6	-14	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ulaanbaatar winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 08:30 · locked at kick-off

89% The market–

Us89%

We make Ulaanbaatar a 89% chance to win. The model expects 4.6–0.9, and 4–0 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ulaanbaatar v Khovd Western~~4.63 – 0.93

~~Last six in Premier League~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 16 v 3~~3 v 7

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ulaanbaatar win

Published at 88%, 89% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ulaanbaatar win	89%	–	–
Draw	7%	–	–
Khovd Western win	4%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	89%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	77%	–	–
Ulaanbaatar or draw	96%	–	–
Ulaanbaatar clean sheet	41%	–	–
Khovd Western clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 6.3%

0123450 1 2.2 2.6 2 4.6 4.4 2.3 3 6.0 5.5 2.8 4 6.3 5.5 2.7 5 5.8 4.7 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Ulaanbaatar down, Khovd Western across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 707 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ulaanbaatar at home: 4.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Khovd Western away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.63 goals for Ulaanbaatar, 0.93 for Khovd Western. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ULA 3–0 KHO · KHO 1–4 ULA

Form · last six in Premier League

ULAANBAATAR

DWWWWW0–0 · 9–0 · 5–3 · 4–0 · 8–0 · 3–1

KHOVD WESTERN

LWLLLL0–4 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 1–5 · 4–8 · 2–6

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Central Stallions	7	22	21
2	Deren	8	17	17
3	Ulaanbaatar	6	25	16
4	Khovd	6	8	10
5	Hunters	6	5	9
6	Erchim	7	-15	6
7	Khovd Western	6	-14	3
8	Amtat FC	6	-26	3
9	Ulaangom City	6	-22	0