Ulaanbaatar v Deren prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UlaanbaatarDrawDeren

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 08:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ulaanbaatar 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ulaanbaatar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ulaanbaatar 50%, draw 23%, Deren 27%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Ulaanbaatar v DerenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ulaanbaatar win50%

Draw23%

Deren win27%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 08:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ulaanbaatar

Deren

11Days since last match15

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ulaanbaatar winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Ulaanbaatar a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ulaanbaatar v Deren~~1.92 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 20 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 17~~1 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ulaanbaatar win	50%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Deren win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Ulaanbaatar or draw	73%	–	–
Ulaanbaatar clean sheet	30%	–	–
Deren clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 5.7 4.9 3.5 1 7.7 9.8 6.0 2.9 2 7.3 8.3 5.5 2.7 3 4.7 5.3 3.5 4 2.4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ulaanbaatar down, Deren across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 716 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 89.2% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ulaanbaatar at home: 4.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Deren away: 3.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Ulaanbaatar, 1.31 for Deren. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DER 0–0 ULA · ULA 2–3 DER · DER 0–2 ULA · ULA 2–0 DER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 20 Sept

ULAANBAATAR

WWWWWW5–3 · 4–0 · 8–0 · 3–1 · 8–0 · 2–0

DEREN

WWWDLW5–0 · 5–2 · 5–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	8	+35	22
2	Central Stallions	8	+20	21
3	Deren	8	+17	17
4	Hunters	8	+14	15
5	Khovd	8	+2	10
6	Erchim	9	−18	9
7	Amtat FC	9	−23	9
8	Khovd Western	9	−23	6
9	Ulaangom City	7	−24	0