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Khovd Western v Amtat FC

Khovd Western
1–3Full time
Amtat FC

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:38
Khovd Western 1–3 Amtat FC KHOVD WESTERN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Khovd Western win49%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.710
The market’s Brier score0.535

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Khovd Western win at 49%.
  2. 45′A goal for Amtat FC on 45′. 0–0 · 43–25–32
  3. 45′Much as we predicted: Khovd Western was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
  4. 46′We said Khovd Western at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–13–79
  5. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Khovd Western 0–2 Amtat FC
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Khovd Western 0–2 Amtat FC
  7. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Khovd Western win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
  8. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Amtat FC win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Khovd Western win 43%)
  9. 61′We said Khovd Western at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
  10. 68′Khovd Western find the net on 68′. 1–2. 1–2 · 11–23–66
  11. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Khovd Western 1–2 Amtat FC
  12. 69′We said Khovd Western at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–23–67
  13. 92′A goal for Amtat FC on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  14. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Khovd Western 1–3 Amtat FC
  15. FTFULL TIME Khovd Western 1–3 Amtat FC
  16. FTKhovd Western 1–3 Amtat FC · Khovd Western win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khovd Western are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khovd Western 49%, draw 17%, Amtat FC 34%. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 84%.

The AI’s read on Khovd Western v Amtat FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Khovd Western win49%
Draw17%
Amtat FC win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khovd Western

Amtat FC

5Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Khovd Western8−216
8Amtat FC8−256

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khovd western winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off
49% The market40%
Us49%
Market40%

We make Khovd Western a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–2.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Khovd Western v Amtat FC2.99 – 2.50
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 20 SeptW1 D0 L5 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 6 v 67 v 8
The market · Khovd Western win40% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 20 OCT 16:0124 OCT 08:42
Our probability · Khovd Western win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Khovd Western win49%40%+9
Draw17%19%−2
Amtat FC win34%41%−7
Over 2.5 goals89%86%+3
Both teams to score84%85%−1
Over 1.5 goals97%––
Over 3.5 goals77%72%+5
Khovd Western or draw66%59%+7
Khovd Western clean sheet10%––
Amtat FC clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 5.4%
0123450 1 3.8 4.0 3.2 2 2.2 4.8 5.4 4.2 2.6 3 2.1 4.5 5.1 4.0 2.5 4 3.3 3.7 2.9 5 2.0 2.3
under 2% 5% 12%+Khovd Western down, Amtat FC across0–5 goals a side shown (84.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsAMT 2–3 KHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 20 Sept

KHOVD WESTERN

LLLLLW2–3 · 1–5 · 4–8 · 2–6 · 0–8 · 3–2

AMTAT FC

LLLLWL0–9 · 2–5 · 1–6 · 0–8 · 4–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ulaanbaatar8+3522
2Central Stallions8+2021
3Deren8+1717
4Hunters8+1415
5Khovd7+310
6Erchim8−196
7Khovd Western8−216
8Amtat FC8−256
9Ulaangom City7−240

The competition's standings before kick-off.