Khovd v Erchim prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 10:34

Khovd 3–4 Erchim KHOVD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Khovd win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.898

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khovd are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khovd 59%, draw 14%, Erchim 27%. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 83%.

The AI’s read on Khovd v ErchimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Khovd win59%

Draw14%

Erchim win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khovd

Erchim

9Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Khovd	7	+3	10
6	Erchim	8	−19	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khovd winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Khovd a 59% chance to win. The model expects 3.7–2.3, and 3–2 is the single most likely score at 4%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Khovd v Erchim~~3.72 – 2.30

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 21 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~5 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khovd win	59%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Erchim win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	91%	–	–
Both teams to score	83%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	81%	–	–
Khovd or draw	73%	–	–
Khovd clean sheet	13%	–	–
Erchim clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–2 at 4.5%

0123450 1 2.9 3.1 2.6 2 2.0 4.0 4.5 3.6 2.3 3 2.2 4.1 4.5 3.5 2.2 4 3.5 3.6 2.7 5 2.6 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Khovd down, Erchim across0–5 goals a side shown (76.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 88.6% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 5.10 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khovd at home: 3.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Erchim away: 0.83 scored, 4.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.72 goals for Khovd, 2.30 for Erchim. Most likely score 3–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~5.10

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ERC 2–8 KHO · ERC 1–3 KHO · KHO 3–3 ERC · ERC 5–3 KHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 21 Sept

KHOVD

LWLDWL0–6 · 8–2 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 8–0 · 1–6

ERCHIM

WLLLLL3–2 · 2–8 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	8	+35	22
2	Central Stallions	8	+20	21
3	Deren	8	+17	17
4	Hunters	8	+14	15
5	Khovd	7	+3	10
6	Erchim	8	−19	6
7	Khovd Western	8	−21	6
8	Amtat FC	8	−25	6
9	Ulaangom City	7	−24	0