Hunters v Khovd prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 08:30

Hunters 6–1 Khovd HUNTERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hunters win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.230

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hunters win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hunters was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–15–24
1′KICK-OFF Hunters v Khovd
45′SECOND HALF Hunters 0–0 Khovd
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Hunters win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
48′We said Hunters at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–23–49
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Hunters win: 61% at kick-off, 52% now
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Hunters 0–1 Khovd
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Hunters win: 61% at kick-off, 28% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Khovd win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Hunters win 28%)
49′A goal for Khovd on 49′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 27–23–49
52′53′ and it is 1–1: Hunters have scored. 1–1 · 50–25–25
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Hunters 1–1 Khovd
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Hunters win: 61% at kick-off, 50% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Hunters win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Khovd win 25%)
53′We said Hunters at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–25–25
63′We said Hunters at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–31–24
66′We published Hunters at 61%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–17–7
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Hunters 2–1 Khovd
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Hunters win: 61% at kick-off, 76% now
67′Hunters find the net on 67′. 2–1. 2–1 · 76–17–6
73′A goal for Hunters on 74′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Hunters 3–1 Khovd
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Hunters win: 61% at kick-off, 95% now
75′We published Hunters at 61%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–1 · 96–3–1
84′85′ and it is 4–1: Hunters have scored. 4–1 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Hunters 4–1 Khovd
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Hunters 5–1 Khovd
86′We published Hunters at 61%. Our model now makes it 100%. 5–1 · 100–0–0
87′Hunters find the net on 86′. 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
87′A goal for Hunters on 88′ — 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Hunters 6–1 Khovd
89′That is 7, and we only asked for 6.3 across ninety minutes. 6–1 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 6–1. We called Hunters at 61% — that one lands. 6–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Hunters 6–1 Khovd
FTHunters 6–1 Khovd · Hunters win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hunters are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hunters 61%, draw 14%, Khovd 25%. Over 2.5 goals 93%, both teams to score 86%.

The AI’s read on Hunters v KhovdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 05:30 · locked at kick-off

Hunters win61%

Draw14%

Khovd win25%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 06:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hunters

Khovd

5Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Khovd	6	8	10
5	Hunters	6	5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hunters winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 05:30 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Hunters a 61% chance to win. The model expects 3.8–2.5, and 3–2 is the single most likely score at 5%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hunters v Khovd~~3.77 – 2.52

~~Last six in Premier League~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~5 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hunters win

Published at 66%, 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hunters win	61%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Khovd win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	93%	–	–
Both teams to score	86%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	98%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	84%	–	–
Hunters or draw	75%	–	–
Hunters clean sheet	11%	–	–
Khovd clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–2 at 4.7%

0123450 1 2.5 2.4 2 3.9 4.1 3.0 3 2.2 4.5 4.7 3.5 2.1 4 4.0 4.2 3.2 5 2.9 3.1 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Hunters down, Khovd across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 709 Premier League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 90.0% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 5.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hunters at home: 4.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Khovd away: 3.00 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.77 goals for Hunters, 2.52 for Khovd. Most likely score 3–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KHO 1–6 HUN · HUN 10–1 KHO · KHO 2–0 HUN · KHO 1–4 HUN

Form · last six in Premier League

HUNTERS

LLLWWW1–2 · 0–3 · 3–5 · 4–2 · 6–1 · 6–2

KHOVD

WLWLDW4–0 · 0–6 · 8–2 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 8–0

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Central Stallions	7	22	21
2	Ulaanbaatar	7	33	19
3	Deren	8	17	17
4	Khovd	6	8	10
5	Hunters	6	5	9
6	Erchim	7	-15	6
7	Khovd Western	7	-22	3
8	Amtat FC	6	-26	3
9	Ulaangom City	6	-22	0