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Model 1.2

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Hunters v Erchim

Hunters
5–1Full time
Erchim

Premier League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 11:34
Hunters 5–1 Erchim HUNTERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hunters win78%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.076

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hunters win at 78%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hunters was 78% before kick-off and our model makes it 77% now. 0–0 · 77–11–11
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hunters v Erchim
  4. 18′Hunters score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 88–7–5
  5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Hunters 1–0 Erchim
  6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Hunters win: 78% at kick-off, 88% now
  7. 31′Hunters find the net on 31′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–3–1
  8. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Hunters 2–0 Erchim
  9. 32′We published Hunters at 78%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–3–1
  10. 32′Goals are coming at about the 5.6 we expected. 2–0 · 95–3–1
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Hunters 2–1 Erchim
  12. 46′A goal for Erchim on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 86–10–4
  13. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Hunters 2–1 Erchim
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Hunters 2–1 Erchim
  15. 50′Hunters score on 49′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–1
  16. 50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Hunters 3–1 Erchim
  17. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Hunters win: 78% at kick-off, 98% now
  18. 71′Hunters find the net on 71′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  19. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Hunters 4–1 Erchim
  20. 72′We published Hunters at 78%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  21. 82′A goal for Hunters on 82′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  22. 82′6 goals already, more than the 5.6 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  23. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Hunters 5–1 Erchim
  24. FTFULL TIME Hunters 5–1 Erchim
  25. FTHunters 5–1 Erchim · Hunters win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hunters are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hunters 78%, draw 11%, Erchim 11%. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Hunters v ErchimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hunters win78%
Draw11%
Erchim win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hunters

Erchim

3Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2027

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Hunters7+1012
6Erchim7−156

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hunters winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off
78% The market–
Us78%

We make Hunters a 78% chance to win. The model expects 4.2–1.4, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hunters v Erchim4.25 – 1.37
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 12 v 64 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 08:41
Our probability · Hunters win

Published at 72%, 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hunters win78%––
Draw11%––
Erchim win11%––
Over 2.5 goals88%––
Both teams to score69%––
Over 1.5 goals96%––
Over 3.5 goals76%––
Hunters or draw89%––
Hunters clean sheet28%––
Erchim clean sheet3%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 5.6%
0123450 1 2.0 3.5 2.4 2 3.8 5.1 3.7 3 4.5 5.6 4.0 2.1 4 4.3 5.0 3.4 5 3.6 3.9 2.5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hunters down, Erchim across0–5 goals a side shown (73.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored0 of 3
Last meetingsHUN 3–0 ERC · ERC 0–1 HUN · HUN 0–2 ERC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Sept

HUNTERS

LLWWWW0–3 · 3–5 · 4–2 · 6–1 · 6–2 · 6–1

ERCHIM

LWLLLL1–2 · 3–2 · 2–8 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–5

The table

2027
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Central Stallions7+2221
2Ulaanbaatar7+3319
3Deren8+1717
4Hunters7+1012
5Khovd7+310
6Erchim7−156
7Amtat FC7−246
8Khovd Western7−223
9Ulaangom City7−240

The competition's standings before kick-off.