Erchim v Ulaangom City prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ErchimDrawUlaangom City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 08:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Erchim 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Erchim are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Erchim 61%, draw 15%, Ulaangom City 24%. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 78%.

The AI’s read on Erchim v Ulaangom CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Erchim win61%

Draw15%

Ulaangom City win24%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 08:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Erchim

Ulaangom City

4Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Erchim	9	−18	9
9	Ulaangom City	7	−24	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · erchim winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Erchim a 61% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–2.0, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 5%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Erchim v Ulaangom City~~3.26 – 1.99

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 9 v 0~~6 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Erchim win	61%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Ulaangom City win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	86%	–	–
Both teams to score	78%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	74%	–	–
Erchim or draw	76%	–	–
Erchim clean sheet	16%	–	–
Ulaangom City clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 5.2%

0123450 1 2.1 4.0 3.5 2.4 2 3.0 5.1 4.7 3.1 3 3.0 5.2 4.8 3.1 4 2.5 4.4 4.0 2.5 5 3.1 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Erchim down, Ulaangom City across0–5 goals a side shown (83.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 88.6% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Erchim at home: 1.33 scored, 4.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ulaangom City away: 1.83 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.26 goals for Erchim, 1.99 for Ulaangom City. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ULA 0–1 ERC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Sept

ERCHIM

LLLLLW2–8 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 1–5 · 4–3

ULAANGOM CITY

LLLLLL1–4 · 0–5 · 1–4 · 2–4 · 0–8 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	8	+35	22
2	Central Stallions	8	+20	21
3	Deren	8	+17	17
4	Hunters	8	+14	15
5	Khovd	8	+2	10
6	Erchim	9	−18	9
7	Amtat FC	9	−23	9
8	Khovd Western	9	−23	6
9	Ulaangom City	7	−24	0