Erchim v Ulaanbaatar prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 08:33

Erchim 1–3 Ulaanbaatar ULAANBAATAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–4 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ulaanbaatar win~~88%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.021

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ulaanbaatar win at 88%.
1′KICK-OFF Erchim v Ulaanbaatar
2′Little has changed for our model: Ulaanbaatar 88% before kick-off, 94% now. 0–0 · 2–4–94
3′Little has changed for our model: Ulaanbaatar 88% before kick-off, 94% now. 0–0 · 2–4–94
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Erchim 1–0 Ulaanbaatar
24′3′ and it is 1–0: Erchim have scored. 1–0 · 11–14–75
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Ulaanbaatar win: 88% at kick-off, 75% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Ulaanbaatar win: 88% at kick-off, 94% now
25′3′ and it is 1–0: Erchim have scored. 1–0 · 11–14–75
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Ulaanbaatar win: 88% at kick-off, 75% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Erchim 1–1 Ulaanbaatar
38′⚽ GOAL · 36' Erchim 1–1 Ulaanbaatar
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ulaanbaatar win: 88% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME Erchim 1–1 Ulaanbaatar
46′SECOND HALF Erchim 1–1 Ulaanbaatar
82′⚽ GOAL · 3' Erchim 1–1 Ulaanbaatar
82′⚽ GOAL · 36' Erchim 1–1 Ulaanbaatar
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Erchim 1–2 Ulaanbaatar
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Erchim 1–3 Ulaanbaatar
FTFULL TIME Erchim 1–3 Ulaanbaatar
FTErchim 1–3 Ulaanbaatar · Ulaanbaatar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–4 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Erchim win5%

Draw7%

Ulaanbaatar win88%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 06:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Erchim

Ulaanbaatar

10Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027/28

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ulaanbaatar	5	+23	13
6	Erchim	5	−8	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ulaanbaatar winPublished 11 Oct 06:01

88% The market–

Us88%

We make Ulaanbaatar a 88% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–4.9, and 0–4 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Erchim win	5%	–	–
Draw	7%	–	–
Ulaanbaatar win	88%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	90%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	79%	–	–
Erchim or draw	12%	–	–
Erchim clean sheet	2%	–	–
Ulaanbaatar clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–4 at 6.0%

0123450 2.0 4.2 5.6 6.0 5.81 2.5 4.1 5.0 4.8 4.02 2.3 2.7 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Erchim down, Ulaanbaatar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 705 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.73 goals a meeting; 9 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Erchim at home: 1.33 scored, 4.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ulaanbaatar away: 3.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Erchim, 4.87 for Ulaanbaatar. Most likely score 0–4.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.73

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~ERC 0–3 ULA · ULA 2–1 ERC · ERC 3–2 ULA · ULA 2–3 ERC

Form · last six in Premier League

ERCHIM

LWLWLL3–5 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–8 · 1–4

ULAANBAATAR

LDWWWW2–3 · 0–0 · 9–0 · 5–3 · 4–0 · 8–0

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Central Stallions	6	+21	18
2	Deren	6	+13	14
3	Ulaanbaatar	5	+23	13
4	Khovd	6	+8	10
5	Hunters	6	+5	9
6	Erchim	5	−8	6
7	Khovd Western	6	−14	3
8	Amtat FC	6	−26	3
9	Ulaangom City	6	−22	0