Deren v Hunters prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DerenDrawHunters

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 08:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deren 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deren are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deren 51%, draw 20%, Hunters 29%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Deren v HuntersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Deren win51%

Draw20%

Hunters win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 08:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deren

Hunters

11Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Deren	8	+17	17
4	Hunters	8	+14	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deren winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Deren a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deren v Hunters~~2.33 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 20 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 15~~3 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deren win	51%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Hunters win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Deren or draw	71%	–	–
Deren clean sheet	20%	–	–
Hunters clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.8 3.0 2.8 1 4.2 7.5 5.7 3.2 2 5.1 7.7 6.2 3.5 3 3.9 5.8 4.7 2.7 4 2.3 3.5 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deren down, Hunters across0–5 goals a side shown (94.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 88.6% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deren at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hunters away: 5.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.33 goals for Deren, 1.70 for Hunters. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HUN 1–2 DER · DER 1–1 HUN · HUN 0–1 DER · HUN 0–4 DER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 20 Sept

DEREN

WWWDLW5–0 · 5–2 · 5–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 5–0

HUNTERS

LWWWWW3–5 · 4–2 · 6–1 · 6–2 · 6–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	8	+35	22
2	Central Stallions	8	+20	21
3	Deren	8	+17	17
4	Hunters	8	+14	15
5	Khovd	8	+2	10
6	Erchim	9	−18	9
7	Amtat FC	9	−23	9
8	Khovd Western	9	−23	6
9	Ulaangom City	7	−24	0