Deren v Erchim prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 08:30

Deren 5–0 Erchim DEREN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deren win~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.064

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deren win at 79%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deren was 79% before kick-off and our model makes it 83% now. 0–0 · 83–10–7
1′KICK-OFF Deren v Erchim
13′Deren find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–6–2
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Deren 1–0 Erchim
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Deren win: 79% at kick-off, 92% now
15′We published Deren at 79%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Deren 2–0 Erchim
17′A goal for Deren on 16′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–1
19′We published Deren at 79%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–1
34′Goals are coming at about the 4.5 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′HALF-TIME Deren 2–0 Erchim
46′SECOND HALF Deren 2–0 Erchim
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Deren 3–0 Erchim
53′52′ and it is 3–0: Deren have scored. 3–0 · 100–0–0
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Deren win: 79% at kick-off, 100% now
55′We published Deren at 79%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Deren 4–0 Erchim
66′Deren find the net on 64′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
67′GOAL DISALLOWED · 67' Deren
70′Deren find the net on 69′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Deren 4–0 Erchim
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Deren 5–0 Erchim
88′A goal for Deren on 87′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.5 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Deren 5–0 Erchim
FTDeren 5–0 Erchim · Deren win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Deren v ErchimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 05:30 · locked at kick-off

Deren win79%

Draw12%

Erchim win9%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 06:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deren

Erchim

3Days since last match3

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027/28

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Deren	7	12	14
6	Erchim	6	-10	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deren winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 05:30 · locked at kick-off

79% The market–

Us79%

We make Deren a 79% chance to win. The model expects 3.5–1.0, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deren v Erchim~~3.51 – 1.03

~~Last six in Premier League~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 6~~3 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deren win

Published at 82%, 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deren win	79%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Erchim win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Deren or draw	91%	–	–
Deren clean sheet	38%	–	–
Erchim clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 7.4%

0123450 1 4.1 4.6 2.3 2 6.8 6.5 3.5 3 7.4 6.8 3.7 4 6.3 5.6 3.0 5 4.6 3.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Deren down, Erchim across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 707 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.85 goals a meeting; 9 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deren at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Erchim away: 1.67 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.51 goals for Deren, 1.03 for Erchim. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.85

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 13

~~Both scored~~8 of 13

~~Last meetings~~ERC 1–3 DER · DER 1–1 ERC · ERC 2–2 DER · ERC 1–6 DER

Form · last six in Premier League

DEREN

DWWWDL0–0 · 5–0 · 5–2 · 5–1 · 3–3 · 1–2

ERCHIM

WLWLLL1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–8 · 1–4 · 1–3

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Central Stallions	7	22	21
2	Ulaanbaatar	6	25	16
3	Deren	7	12	14
4	Khovd	6	8	10
5	Hunters	6	5	9
6	Erchim	6	-10	6
7	Khovd Western	6	-14	3
8	Amtat FC	6	-26	3
9	Ulaangom City	6	-22	0