Central Stallions v Ulaanbaatar prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Central StallionsDrawUlaanbaatar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ulaanbaatar 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ulaanbaatar are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Central Stallions 17%, draw 19%, Ulaanbaatar 65%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Central Stallions v UlaanbaatarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Central Stallions win17%

Draw19%

Ulaanbaatar win65%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Central Stallions

Ulaanbaatar

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ulaanbaatar winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Ulaanbaatar a 65% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.5, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Central Stallions v Ulaanbaatar~~1.19 – 2.54

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 21 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 21 v 22~~2 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Stallions win	17%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Ulaanbaatar win	65%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Central Stallions or draw	35%	–	–
Central Stallions clean sheet	10%	–	–
Ulaanbaatar clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.1%

0123450 4.0 6.6 7.7 6.2 4.0 2.21 3.0 7.4 8.1 6.7 4.5 2.52 4.0 4.8 4.1 2.8 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Stallions down, Ulaanbaatar across0–5 goals a side shown (93.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 716 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 89.2% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Stallions at home: 3.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ulaanbaatar away: 3.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Central Stallions, 2.54 for Ulaanbaatar. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ULA 2–0 CEN · ULA 2–3 CEN · CEN 0–3 ULA · CEN 1–0 ULA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 21 Sept

CENTRAL STALLIONS

WWWWWL6–0 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 8–4 · 2–1 · 0–2

ULAANBAATAR

WWWWWW5–3 · 4–0 · 8–0 · 3–1 · 8–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	8	+35	22
2	Central Stallions	8	+20	21
3	Deren	8	+17	17
4	Hunters	8	+14	15
5	Khovd	8	+2	10
6	Erchim	9	−18	9
7	Amtat FC	9	−23	9
8	Khovd Western	9	−23	6
9	Ulaangom City	7	−24	0