Central Stallions v Deren prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 11:42

Central Stallions 2–1 Deren DEREN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deren win~~53%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.880

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.539

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deren win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deren was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 25–20–55
1′KICK-OFF Central Stallions v Deren
2′Much as we predicted: Deren was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 25–20–54
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Central Stallions 1–0 Deren
45′HALF-TIME Central Stallions 1–0 Deren
46′SECOND HALF Central Stallions 1–0 Deren
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Central Stallions 2–0 Deren
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Central Stallions 2–1 Deren
FTFULL TIME Central Stallions 2–1 Deren
FTCentral Stallions 2–1 Deren · Deren win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Central Stallions win26%

Draw21%

Deren win53%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Central Stallions

Deren

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027/28

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Central Stallions	6	+21	18
2	Deren	6	+13	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deren winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

53% The market37%

Us53%

~~Market~~37%

We make Deren a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–2.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deren win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Stallions win	26%	41%	−15
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Deren win	53%	37%	+16
Over 2.5 goals	69%	75%	−5
Both teams to score	66%	74%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	87%	89%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Central Stallions or draw	47%	63%	−16
Central Stallions clean sheet	14%	–	–
Deren clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.3%

0123450 4.3 5.2 5.9 4.4 2.7 1 3.7 8.3 7.9 6.0 3.6 2 3.1 5.5 5.6 4.3 2.6 3 2.8 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Stallions down, Deren across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 705 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Stallions at home: 2.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deren away: 3.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Central Stallions, 2.24 for Deren. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CEN 0–3 DER · DER 2–0 CEN · DER 1–2 CEN · CEN 1–0 DER

Form · last six in Premier League

CENTRAL STALLIONS

WWWWWW2–0 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 8–4

DEREN

WDWWWD2–1 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 5–2 · 5–1 · 3–3

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Central Stallions	6	+21	18
2	Deren	6	+13	14
3	Ulaanbaatar	5	+23	13
4	Khovd	6	+8	10
5	Hunters	6	+5	9
6	Erchim	5	−8	6
7	Khovd Western	6	−14	3
8	Amtat FC	6	−26	3
9	Ulaangom City	6	−22	0