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Amtat FC v Khovd Western

Amtat FC
2–3Full time
Khovd Western

Premier League · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 08:30
Amtat FC 2–3 Khovd Western KHOVD WESTERN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Khovd Western win48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.418

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Khovd Western win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Khovd Western 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 35–17–48
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Amtat FC v Khovd Western
  4. 8′Khovd Western find the net on 8′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–14–65
  5. 8′We said Khovd Western at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 21–14–65
  6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Amtat FC 0–1 Khovd Western
  7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Khovd Western win: 48% at kick-off, 65% now
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Amtat FC 0–1 Khovd Western
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Amtat FC 0–1 Khovd Western
  10. 48′A goal for Khovd Western on 47′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 5–9–86
  11. 48′The goal count is tracking the 5.6 we expected. 1–2 · 14–18–68
  12. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Amtat FC 0–2 Khovd Western
  13. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Khovd Western win: 48% at kick-off, 86% now
  14. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Amtat FC 1–2 Khovd Western
  15. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Khovd Western win: 48% at kick-off, 68% now
  16. 49′Amtat FC score on 48′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 14–18–68
  17. 54′Khovd Western find the net on 54′. 1–3. 1–3 · 4–8–87
  18. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Amtat FC 1–3 Khovd Western
  19. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Khovd Western win: 48% at kick-off, 87% now
  20. 55′We said Khovd Western at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–3 · 4–8–88
  21. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Khovd Western win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
  22. 61′We said Khovd Western at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–3 · 3–7–90
  23. 62′A goal for Amtat FC on 62′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 10–20–70
  24. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Amtat FC 2–3 Khovd Western
  25. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Khovd Western win: 48% at kick-off, 70% now
  26. 63′We said Khovd Western at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 2–3 · 10–20–71
  27. 72′We said Khovd Western at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–3 · 6–19–75
  28. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Khovd Western win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
  29. 79′We said Khovd Western at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
  30. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Khovd Western win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
  31. 92′We said Khovd Western at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
  32. FTFULL TIME Amtat FC 2–3 Khovd Western
  33. FTAmtat FC 2–3 Khovd Western · Khovd Western win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khovd Western are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Amtat FC 35%, draw 17%, Khovd Western 48%. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 85%.

The AI’s read on Amtat FC v Khovd WesternBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Amtat FC win35%
Draw17%
Khovd Western win48%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Amtat FC

Khovd Western

4Days since last match5

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2027

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Amtat FC7−246
8Khovd Western7−223

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khovd western winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off
48% The market–
Us48%

We make Khovd Western a 48% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–3.0, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 5%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Amtat FC v Khovd Western2.59 – 3.03
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 6 v 37 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 13 OCT 05:4119 OCT 05:39
Our probability · Khovd Western win

Published at 56%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Amtat FC win35%––
Draw17%––
Khovd Western win48%––
Over 2.5 goals89%––
Both teams to score85%––
Over 1.5 goals97%––
Over 3.5 goals78%––
Amtat FC or draw52%––
Amtat FC clean sheet7%––
Khovd Western clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 5.3%
0123450 2.1 1 3.7 4.6 4.3 3.1 2 4.0 5.3 4.9 3.6 2.23 3.2 4.3 4.0 2.9 4 2.0 2.7 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Amtat FC down, Khovd Western across0–5 goals a side shown (83.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2027

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2027.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Sept

AMTAT FC

WLLLLW2–1 · 0–9 · 2–5 · 1–6 · 0–8 · 4–2

KHOVD WESTERN

WLLLLL4–1 · 2–3 · 1–5 · 4–8 · 2–6 · 0–8

The table

2027
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ulaanbaatar8+3522
2Central Stallions8+2021
3Deren8+1717
4Hunters8+1415
5Khovd7+310
6Erchim8−196
7Amtat FC7−246
8Khovd Western7−223
9Ulaangom City7−240

The competition's standings before kick-off.