Amtat FC v Khovd prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Amtat FCDrawKhovd

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Khovd 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khovd are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Amtat FC 22%, draw 13%, Khovd 65%. Over 2.5 goals 95%, both teams to score 88%.

The AI’s read on Amtat FC v KhovdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Amtat FC win22%

Draw13%

Khovd win65%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Amtat FC

Khovd

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Mongolia)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Khovd	8	+2	10
7	Amtat FC	9	−23	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khovd winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Khovd a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–4.3, and 2–3 is the single most likely score at 4%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Amtat FC v Khovd~~2.43 – 4.26

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Khovd win

Published at 71%, 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Amtat FC win	22%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Khovd win	65%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	95%	–	–
Both teams to score	88%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	99%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	87%	–	–
Amtat FC or draw	35%	–	–
Amtat FC clean sheet	3%	–	–
Khovd clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–3 at 4.5%

0123450 1 3.2 3.8 3.6 2.92 2.1 3.7 4.5 4.2 3.33 3.0 3.6 3.3 2.64 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Amtat FC down, Khovd across0–5 goals a side shown (70.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 716 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 89.2% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Amtat FC at home: 1.50 scored, 4.00 conceded a game (last 4). Khovd away: 2.67 scored, 4.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.43 goals for Amtat FC, 4.26 for Khovd. Most likely score 2–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KHO 8–0 AMT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 26 Sept

AMTAT FC

LLLWLW2–5 · 1–6 · 0–8 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 3–1

KHOVD

WLDWLL8–2 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 8–0 · 1–6 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ulaanbaatar	8	+35	22
2	Central Stallions	8	+20	21
3	Deren	8	+17	17
4	Hunters	8	+14	15
5	Khovd	8	+2	10
6	Erchim	9	−18	9
7	Amtat FC	9	−23	9
8	Khovd Western	9	−23	6
9	Ulaangom City	7	−24	0