Zimbru v CSF Bălți prediction · Super Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ZimbruDrawCSF Bălți

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Zimbru 84%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zimbru are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zimbru 84%, draw 11%, CSF Bălți 5%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Zimbru v CSF BălțiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Zimbru win84%

Draw11%

CSF Bălți win5%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueStadionul Zimbru

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zimbru

CSF Bălți

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Zimbru	15	+15	28
8	CSF Bălți	15	−39	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zimbru winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

84% The market–

Us84%

We make Zimbru an 84% chance to win. The model expects 3.6–0.7, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zimbru v CSF Bălți~~3.57 – 0.66

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 28 v 5~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zimbru win	84%	–	–
Draw	11%	–	–
CSF Bălți win	5%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Zimbru or draw	95%	–	–
Zimbru clean sheet	52%	–	–
CSF Bălți clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.7%

0123450 3.0 1 5.6 5.2 2 9.4 6.4 2.3 3 9.7 6.3 2.2 4 8.2 5.1 5 6.1 3.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zimbru down, CSF Bălți across0–5 goals a side shown (81.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 695 Super Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zimbru at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). CSF Bălți away: 0.33 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.57 goals for Zimbru, 0.66 for CSF Bălți. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CSF 0–4 ZIM · ZIM 3–0 CSF · ZIM 4–1 CSF · CSF 0–2 ZIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

ZIMBRU

WWWLDD2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

CSF BĂLȚI

LLLLLL0–3 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–7 · 0–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	16	+29	37
2	Petrocub	16	+12	29
3	Zimbru	15	+15	28
4	Dacia-Buiucani	16	0	24
5	Politehnica UTM	16	0	19
6	Milsami Orhei	16	−5	19
7	Sireți	16	−12	10
8	CSF Bălți	15	−39	5