Sheriff Tiraspol v Zimbru prediction · Super Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sheriff TiraspolDrawZimbru

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sheriff Tiraspol 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sheriff Tiraspol are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sheriff Tiraspol 53%, draw 27%, Zimbru 20%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Sheriff Tiraspol v ZimbruBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sheriff Tiraspol win53%

Draw27%

Zimbru win20%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 17

VenueSheriff Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sheriff Tiraspol

Zimbru

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

Last match: 18 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sheriff tiraspol winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Sheriff Tiraspol a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sheriff Tiraspol v Zimbru~~1.75 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 37 v 28~~1 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sheriff Tiraspol win	53%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Zimbru win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Sheriff Tiraspol or draw	80%	–	–
Sheriff Tiraspol clean sheet	38%	–	–
Zimbru clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.6 5.1 3.3 1 9.9 12.3 5.4 2 9.7 9.2 4.6 3 5.7 5.4 2.7 4 2.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sheriff Tiraspol down, Zimbru across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 695 Super Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sheriff Tiraspol at home: 2.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Zimbru away: 2.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Sheriff Tiraspol, 0.99 for Zimbru. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZIM 2–1 SHE · SHE 4–2 ZIM · SHE 2–0 ZIM · SHE 1–0 ZIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

SHERIFF TIRASPOL

DWWWWW2–2 · 1–0 · 7–0 · 5–2 · 2–0 · 2–0

ZIMBRU

WWWLDD2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	16	+29	37
2	Petrocub	16	+12	29
3	Zimbru	15	+15	28
4	Dacia-Buiucani	16	0	24
5	Politehnica UTM	16	0	19
6	Milsami Orhei	16	−5	19
7	Sireți	16	−12	10
8	CSF Bălți	15	−39	5