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Model 1.2

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Sheriff Tiraspol v Sireți

Sheriff Tiraspol
2–0Full time
Sireți

Super Liga · SAT 17 OCT · Sheriff Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Sheriff Tiraspol 2–0 Sireți SHERIFF TIRASPOL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Sheriff Tiraspol win78%
The market said81%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.077
The market’s Brier score0.058

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sheriff Tiraspol win at 78%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Sheriff Tiraspol 78% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 78–16–6
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sheriff Tiraspol v Sireți
  4. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 78% at kick-off, 68% now
  5. 37′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 66%. 0–0 · 66–26–8
  6. 39′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–7–1
  7. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Sheriff Tiraspol 1–0 Sireți
  8. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 78% at kick-off, 92% now
  9. 39′GOAL DISALLOWED · 39' Sheriff Tiraspol
  10. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 78% at kick-off, 65% now
  11. 40′A goal for Sheriff Tiraspol on 39′. 0–0 · 65–27–8
  12. 41′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–28–8
  13. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Sireți
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Sheriff Tiraspol 0–0 Sireți
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Sheriff Tiraspol 0–0 Sireți
  16. 50′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–33–8
  17. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 78% at kick-off, 58% now
  18. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 55–37–8
  19. 56′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–38–8
  20. 62′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–44–7
  21. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 78% at kick-off, 48% now
  22. 67′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–50–7
  23. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Sheriff Tiraspol win 43%)
  24. 71′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–55–6
  25. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 78% at kick-off, 38% now
  26. 74′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–60–6
  27. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Sheriff Tiraspol 1–0 Sireți
  28. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 78% at kick-off, 94% now
  29. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Sheriff Tiraspol win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
  30. 75′A goal for Sheriff Tiraspol on 75′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–0
  31. 76′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  32. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 78% at kick-off, 98% now
  33. 90′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  34. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Sheriff Tiraspol 2–0 Sireți
  35. 91′Sheriff Tiraspol score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  36. 93′2–0 at the end. Our 78% on Sheriff Tiraspol comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  37. FTFULL TIME Sheriff Tiraspol 2–0 Sireți
  38. FTSheriff Tiraspol 2–0 Sireți · Sheriff Tiraspol win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sheriff Tiraspol are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sheriff Tiraspol 78%, draw 16%, Sireți 6%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Sheriff Tiraspol v SirețiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sheriff Tiraspol win78%
Draw16%
Sireți win6%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueSheriff Arena

Line-ups

Sheriff Tiraspol

Sireți

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sheriff Tiraspol

Sireți

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

Last match: 10 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sheriff Tiraspol14+2531
7Sireți14−810

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sheriff Tiraspol

Formation not confirmed

28 N. Cebotari

2 M. Ouedraogo

9 K. Kalabatama

10 V. Fratea

15 B. Ciss

24 D. Forov

26 D. Klas

30 A. Egupov

35 B. Fomba

76 A. Pergjoni

77 J. Pineda

Coach · Victor Mihailov

Substitutes

12 · R. Josan

11 · Sapata

22 · Mota

27 · V. Cozma

32 · E. Afetse

33 · M. Corotcov

42 · L. Jaures-Ulrich

90 · V. Costin

Sireți

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Agachi

3 S. Burghiu

6 D. Lisu

7 A. Casco

17 C. Cotogoi

18 N. Covali

21 B. Rosca

22 A. Rusnac

55 G. Brinzaniuc

69 D. Bivol

70 L. Radu

Coach · –

Substitutes

96 · A. Munteanu

2 · I. Dodon

5 · V. Rebeja

9 · E. Borovschi

10 · O. Molla

11 · M. Blajchin

16 · D. Dosca

19 · A. Bilinschii

25 · A. Sosnovschi

33 · E. Pisica

Our number · sheriff tiraspol winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
78% The market81%
Us78%
Market81%

We make Sheriff Tiraspol a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sheriff Tiraspol v Sireți2.60 – 0.52
Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 23 AugW4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 31 v 101 v 7
The market · Sheriff Tiraspol win81% · ours 78%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
75%80%85%90% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 12:21
Our probability · Sheriff Tiraspol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sheriff Tiraspol win78%81%−3
Draw16%14%+2
Sireți win6%6%0
Over 2.5 goals59%60%−1
Both teams to score37%39%−2
Over 1.5 goals81%81%0
Over 3.5 goals37%39%−2
Sheriff Tiraspol or draw94%94%0
Sheriff Tiraspol clean sheet60%––
Sireți clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.2%
0123450 6.2 1 11.0 7.3 2 14.2 7.2 2.1 3 11.9 5.7 4 8.0 3.6 5 4.6
under 2% 5% 12%+Sheriff Tiraspol down, Sireți across0–5 goals a side shown (93.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsSIR 1–1 SHE · SHE 3–0 SIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 23 Aug

SHERIFF TIRASPOL

WLDWWW4–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 7–0 · 5–2

SIREȚI

DDLLLW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sheriff Tiraspol14+2531
2Zimbru14+1527
3Petrocub14+1125
4Dacia-Buiucani14−220
5Milsami Orhei14−418
6Politehnica UTM14−116
7Sireți14−810
8CSF Bălți14−365

The competition's standings before kick-off.