Politehnica UTM v Sheriff Tiraspol prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Politehnica UTM 0–2 Sheriff Tiraspol SHERIFF TIRASPOL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sheriff Tiraspol win~~66%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.174

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.144

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sheriff Tiraspol win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sheriff Tiraspol 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 14–20–66
1′KICK-OFF Politehnica UTM v Sheriff Tiraspol
16′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 5–10–86
16′Sheriff Tiraspol score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–10–86
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Politehnica UTM 0–1 Sheriff Tiraspol
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 4–11–85
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Politehnica UTM
45′SECOND HALF Politehnica UTM 0–1 Sheriff Tiraspol
46′HALF-TIME Politehnica UTM 0–1 Sheriff Tiraspol
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Politehnica UTM
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Politehnica UTM
75′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
84′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
91′We said Sheriff Tiraspol at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Politehnica UTM 0–2 Sheriff Tiraspol
93′Sheriff Tiraspol find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′0–2 at the end. Our 66% on Sheriff Tiraspol comes in. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Sheriff Tiraspol
FTFULL TIME Politehnica UTM 0–2 Sheriff Tiraspol
FTPolitehnica UTM 0–2 Sheriff Tiraspol · Sheriff Tiraspol win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sheriff Tiraspol are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Politehnica UTM 13%, draw 20%, Sheriff Tiraspol 66%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Politehnica UTM v Sheriff TiraspolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Politehnica UTM win13%

Draw20%

Sheriff Tiraspol win66%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueComplexul Sportiv al Tineretului UTM

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Politehnica UTM

Sheriff Tiraspol

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

Last match: 17 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sheriff tiraspol winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

66% The market69%

Us66%

~~Market~~69%

We make Sheriff Tiraspol a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Politehnica UTM v Sheriff Tiraspol~~0.96 – 2.36

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 34~~5 v 1

~~The market · Sheriff Tiraspol win~~69% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sheriff Tiraspol win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 66% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Politehnica UTM win	13%	12%	+1
Draw	20%	18%	+2
Sheriff Tiraspol win	66%	69%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	63%	63%	0
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Politehnica UTM or draw	34%	31%	+3
Politehnica UTM clean sheet	11%	–	–
Sheriff Tiraspol clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.9%

0123450 5.3 7.7 9.9 7.7 4.6 2.41 2.6 9.3 9.1 7.0 4.1 2.12 4.0 4.4 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Politehnica UTM down, Sheriff Tiraspol across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 692 Super Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Politehnica UTM at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sheriff Tiraspol away: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Politehnica UTM, 2.36 for Sheriff Tiraspol. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SHE 4–0 POL · POL 0–0 SHE · POL 1–2 SHE · SHE 3–0 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

POLITEHNICA UTM

DWLLDW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 4–1

SHERIFF TIRASPOL

LDWWWW1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 7–0 · 5–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	15	+27	34
2	Zimbru	15	+15	28
3	Petrocub	15	+11	26
4	Dacia-Buiucani	15	−2	21
5	Politehnica UTM	15	+2	19
6	Milsami Orhei	15	−4	19
7	Sireți	15	−10	10
8	CSF Bălți	15	−39	5