Petrocub v Zimbru prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Petrocub 1–1 Zimbru PETROCUB WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Petrocub win~~48%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.824

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.764

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Petrocub win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Petrocub v Zimbru
3′Much as we predicted: Petrocub was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
6′Much as we predicted: Petrocub was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–26
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Zimbru
45′HALF-TIME Petrocub 0–0 Zimbru
45′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Zimbru
46′SECOND HALF Petrocub 0–0 Zimbru
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Petrocub 0–1 Zimbru
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Petrocub 1–1 Zimbru
FTFULL TIME Petrocub 1–1 Zimbru
FTPetrocub 1–1 Zimbru · Petrocub win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Petrocub win48%

Draw27%

Zimbru win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueStadionul Municipal

Line-ups

Petrocub

Zimbru

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Petrocub

Zimbru

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Zimbru	13	+15	26
3	Petrocub	13	+11	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Petrocub

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Smalenea

90 I. Jardan

21 I. Revenco

3 C. Cucos

2 V. Pascari

77 S. Cojocari

24 O. David

10 B. Musteata

44 J. Guera Djou

13 M. Cojocaru

15 P. Popescu

Coach · Shota Makharadze

Substitutes

31 · V. Dodon

33 · V. Mudrac

7 · M. Iosipoi

20 · S. Svet

23 · M. Lupan

25 · I. Botnari

27 · M. Sava

50 · D. Tugulea

66 · I. Bors

79 · V. Bogaciuc

92 · P. Nazari

Zimbru

Formation not confirmed

88 I. Dokic

4 C. Gonta

7 Caio Dantas

8 Matteo Amoroso

10 E. Cociuc

14 R. Rosario

18 A. Gutium

20 V. Raileanu

23 Marcello

24 T. Ceijas

35 N. Zolotov

Coach · Oleksandr Poklonskyi

Substitutes

92 · C. Sirghi

1 · D. Rusu

3 · V. Boico

16 · C. Martin

17 · T. Butucel

22 · A. Bonnah

27 · D. Boyko

30 · A. Macritchii

44 · S. Ungureanu

71 · M. Obrejan

99 · A. Betivu

Our number · petrocub winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

48% The market37%

Us48%

~~Market~~37%

We make Petrocub a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · petrocub win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Petrocub win	48%	37%	+11
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Zimbru win	25%	34%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	52%	46%	+6
Both teams to score	55%	51%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	70%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	30%	25%	+5
Petrocub or draw	75%	66%	+9
Petrocub clean sheet	33%	–	–
Zimbru clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.2 5.8 4.0 1 9.0 12.6 6.3 2.4 2 8.4 9.0 5.0 3 4.7 5.0 2.8 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Petrocub down, Zimbru across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 686 Super Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

22 previous meetings, 2.68 goals a meeting; 12 of 22 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Petrocub at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Zimbru away: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Petrocub, 1.12 for Zimbru. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

22 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.68

~~Over 2.5~~12 of 22

~~Both scored~~13 of 22

~~Last meetings~~ZIM 1–2 PET · ZIM 1–1 PET · PET 3–0 ZIM · ZIM 0–0 PET

Form · last six in Super Liga

PETROCUB

LLWDWW1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

ZIMBRU

WWWWWL4–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	14	+25	31
2	Zimbru	13	+15	26
3	Petrocub	13	+11	24
4	Dacia-Buiucani	14	−2	20
5	Milsami Orhei	13	−4	17
6	Politehnica UTM	13	−1	15
7	Sireți	14	−8	10
8	CSF Bălți	14	−36	5