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Model 1.2

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Petrocub v Milsami Orhei

Petrocub
2–1Full time
Milsami Orhei

Super Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Stadionul Municipal

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Petrocub 2–1 Milsami Orhei PETROCUB WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Petrocub win59%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.253
The market’s Brier score0.435

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Petrocub win at 59%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Petrocub was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–26–15
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Petrocub v Milsami Orhei
  4. 15′Petrocub find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–4
  5. 15′We published Petrocub at 59%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–4
  6. 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Petrocub 1–0 Milsami Orhei
  7. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Petrocub win: 59% at kick-off, 84% now
  8. 19′A goal for Milsami Orhei on 19′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 55–29–16
  9. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Petrocub 1–1 Milsami Orhei
  10. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Petrocub win: 59% at kick-off, 55% now
  11. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Petrocub
  12. 24′Milsami Orhei score on 23′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 27–27–46
  13. 24′We said Petrocub at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–2 · 27–27–46
  14. 24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Petrocub 1–2 Milsami Orhei
  15. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Petrocub win: 59% at kick-off, 27% now
  16. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Milsami Orhei win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Petrocub win 54%)
  17. 25′GOAL DISALLOWED · 25' Milsami Orhei
  18. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Petrocub win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
  19. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Petrocub win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Milsami Orhei win 46%)
  20. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Milsami Orhei
  21. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Petrocub win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
  22. 42′We said Petrocub at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–37–15
  23. 45′HALF-TIME Petrocub 1–1 Milsami Orhei
  24. 46′SECOND HALF Petrocub 1–1 Milsami Orhei
  25. 48′We said Petrocub at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–41–15
  26. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Petrocub
  27. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Petrocub win 43%)
  28. 56′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 40–46–14
  29. 57′We said Petrocub at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–47–14
  30. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Petrocub win: 59% at kick-off, 39% now
  31. 63′Petrocub score on 63′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–11–2
  32. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Petrocub 2–1 Milsami Orhei
  33. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Petrocub win: 59% at kick-off, 87% now
  34. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Petrocub win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 53%)
  35. 64′We published Petrocub at 59%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–1 · 87–11–1
  36. 64′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 87–11–1
  37. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Petrocub
  38. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Petrocub win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
  39. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Milsami Orhei
  40. 72′We published Petrocub at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  41. 83′We published Petrocub at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  42. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Petrocub
  43. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Petrocub win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
  44. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Petrocub
  45. FTFULL TIME Petrocub 2–1 Milsami Orhei
  46. FTPetrocub 2–1 Milsami Orhei · Petrocub win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Petrocub are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Petrocub 59%, draw 26%, Milsami Orhei 15%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Petrocub v Milsami OrheiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Petrocub win59%
Draw26%
Milsami Orhei win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueStadionul Municipal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Petrocub

Milsami Orhei

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

Last match: 18 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Petrocub15+1126
6Milsami Orhei15−419

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petrocub winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off
59% The market46%
Us59%
Market46%

We make Petrocub a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Petrocub v Milsami Orhei1.80 – 0.78
Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 30 AugW3 D3 L0 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 26 v 193 v 6
The market · Petrocub win46% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:24
Our probability · Petrocub win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Petrocub win59%46%+13
Draw26%28%−2
Milsami Orhei win15%26%−11
Over 2.5 goals47%45%+2
Both teams to score45%50%−5
Over 1.5 goals73%70%+3
Over 3.5 goals26%26%0
Petrocub or draw85%74%+11
Petrocub clean sheet47%––
Milsami Orhei clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%
0123450 9.7 4.7 2.4 1 12.3 11.7 4.1 2 12.0 9.0 3.6 3 7.2 5.4 2.1 4 3.4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Petrocub down, Milsami Orhei across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsMIL 1–0 PET · PET 5–0 MIL · MIL 0–3 PET · PET 2–0 MIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 30 Aug

PETROCUB

WDWWDD3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

MILSAMI ORHEI

DWLWDD0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sheriff Tiraspol15+2734
2Zimbru15+1528
3Petrocub15+1126
4Dacia-Buiucani15−221
5Politehnica UTM15+219
6Milsami Orhei15−419
7Sireți15−1010
8CSF Bălți15−395

The competition's standings before kick-off.