Milsami Orhei v Zimbru prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Milsami Orhei 1–1 Zimbru ZIMBRU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Zimbru win~~45%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.810

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.833

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zimbru win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zimbru was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 27–27–45
1′KICK-OFF Milsami Orhei v Zimbru
8′A goal for Milsami Orhei on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 55–21–23
8′We said Zimbru at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 55–21–23
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Milsami Orhei 1–0 Zimbru
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Zimbru win: 45% at kick-off, 23% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Milsami Orhei win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Zimbru win 23%)
23′We said Zimbru at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 58–23–19
26′PENALTY MISSED · 26' Zimbru
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 59–24–17
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Zimbru win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
40′We said Zimbru at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
45′HALF-TIME Milsami Orhei 1–0 Zimbru
46′SECOND HALF Milsami Orhei 1–0 Zimbru
53′Zimbru score on 53′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–43–34
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Milsami Orhei 1–1 Zimbru
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Zimbru win: 45% at kick-off, 34% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Milsami Orhei win 23%)
55′We said Zimbru at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 22–44–33
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Zimbru
56′PENALTY MISSED · 56' Milsami Orhei
62′We said Zimbru at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 20–50–29
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Zimbru
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Milsami Orhei
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Zimbru win: 45% at kick-off, 24% now
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Milsami Orhei
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Zimbru win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
85′We said Zimbru at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 6–85–9
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Zimbru win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
91′We said Zimbru at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Milsami Orhei
FTFULL TIME Milsami Orhei 1–1 Zimbru
FTMilsami Orhei 1–1 Zimbru · Zimbru win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zimbru are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Milsami Orhei 27%, draw 27%, Zimbru 45%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Milsami Orhei v ZimbruBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Milsami Orhei win27%

Draw27%

Zimbru win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueComplexul Sportiv Raional

Line-ups

Milsami Orhei

Zimbru

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Milsami Orhei

Zimbru

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Zimbru	14	+15	27
5	Milsami Orhei	14	−4	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Milsami Orhei

Formation not confirmed

31 F. Dujmovic

2 V. Posmac

5 C. Nwaeze

10 R. Ginsari

11 S. Chele

14 P. Odubia

22 M. Ghecev

25 A. Sejdiu

27 S. Platica

29 H. Asmelash

34 Renato

Coach · Alexei Savinov

Substitutes

35 · D. Vornic

4 · A. Angelov

6 · I. Ghimp

7 · C. Silcenco

9 · K. Dudziak

13 · V. Luchita

17 · L. Bulmaga

20 · Igor Souza

30 · F. Takyi

Zimbru

Formation not confirmed

88 I. Dokic

3 V. Boico

7 Caio Dantas

8 Matteo Amoroso

14 R. Rosario

22 A. Bonnah

23 Marcello

24 T. Ceijas

30 A. Macritchii

35 N. Zolotov

99 A. Betivu

Coach · Oleksandr Poklonskyi

Substitutes

92 · C. Sirghi

4 · C. Gonta

5 · Italo

6 · P. Dias

10 · E. Cociuc

16 · C. Martin

17 · T. Butucel

18 · A. Gutium

20 · V. Raileanu

71 · M. Obrejan

98 · Lunov

Our number · zimbru winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:09 · locked at kick-off

45% The market47%

Us45%

~~Market~~47%

We make Zimbru a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Milsami Orhei v Zimbru~~1.20 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 27~~5 v 2

~~The market · Zimbru win~~47% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zimbru win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Milsami Orhei win	27%	26%	+1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Zimbru win	45%	47%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	48%	+5
Both teams to score	56%	52%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	71%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	31%	28%	+3
Milsami Orhei or draw	55%	53%	+2
Milsami Orhei clean sheet	21%	–	–
Zimbru clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.0 8.3 7.8 4.3 1 5.8 12.7 8.8 4.8 2.1 2 4.4 6.7 5.3 2.9 3 2.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Milsami Orhei down, Zimbru across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 690 Super Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Milsami Orhei at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Zimbru away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Milsami Orhei, 1.63 for Zimbru. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZIM 4–2 MIL · MIL 0–0 ZIM · MIL 0–1 ZIM · ZIM 2–0 MIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

MILSAMI ORHEI

WDWLWD1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–3

ZIMBRU

WWWWLD4–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	15	+27	34
2	Zimbru	14	+15	27
3	Petrocub	15	+11	26
4	Dacia-Buiucani	15	−2	21
5	Milsami Orhei	14	−4	18
6	Politehnica UTM	14	−1	16
7	Sireți	15	−10	10
8	CSF Bălți	14	−36	5