Milsami Orhei v Politehnica UTM prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Milsami Orhei 3–3 Politehnica UTM MILSAMI ORHEI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Milsami Orhei win~~56%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.909

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.965

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Milsami Orhei win at 56%.
1′KICK-OFF Milsami Orhei v Politehnica UTM
3′Little has changed for our model: Milsami Orhei 56% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Milsami Orhei 1–0 Politehnica UTM
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Milsami Orhei 1–1 Politehnica UTM
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Politehnica UTM
24′Politehnica UTM ahead on 8′ through M. Caruntu. 1–1. 1–1 · 52–28–20
25′Politehnica UTM ahead on 8′ through M. Caruntu. 1–1. 1–1 · 51–28–20
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Milsami Orhei 2–1 Politehnica UTM
45′A. Sejdiu scores for Milsami Orhei on 37′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–4
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Milsami Orhei win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Milsami Orhei win: 56% at kick-off, 52% now
45′HALF-TIME Milsami Orhei 2–1 Politehnica UTM
46′SECOND HALF Milsami Orhei 2–1 Politehnica UTM
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Milsami Orhei win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Politehnica UTM
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Milsami Orhei 2–2 Politehnica UTM
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Milsami Orhei 3–2 Politehnica UTM
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Milsami Orhei
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Milsami Orhei 3–3 Politehnica UTM
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Milsami Orhei
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Milsami Orhei 4–3 Politehnica UTM
FTFULL TIME Milsami Orhei 3–3 Politehnica UTM
FTMilsami Orhei 3–3 Politehnica UTM · Milsami Orhei win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Milsami Orhei win56%

Draw25%

Politehnica UTM win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueComplexul Sportiv Raional

Line-ups

Milsami Orhei

Politehnica UTM

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Milsami Orhei

Politehnica UTM

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Milsami Orhei	13	−4	17
6	Politehnica UTM	13	−1	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Milsami Orhei

Formation not confirmed

31 F. Dujmovic

2 V. Posmac

5 C. Nwaeze

10 R. Ginsari

11 S. Chele

14 P. Odubia

17 L. Bulmaga

20 Igor Souza

22 M. Ghecev

25 A. Sejdiu

27 S. Platica

Coach · Alexei Savinov

Substitutes

35 · D. Vornic

4 · A. Angelov

7 · C. Silcenco

9 · K. Dudziak

13 · V. Luchita

21 · S. Izountouemoi

30 · F. Takyi

34 · Renato

Politehnica UTM

Formation not confirmed

72 P. Socolov

7 A. Sprinsean

8 A. Mardari

10 Y. Noh Nafeng

11 Y. Nkalle

15 M. Cojusea

20 S. Gandi

21 D. Cucer

22 N. Lipcan

77 T. Katz

79 M. Caruntu

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · A. Tuev

25 · D. Strainu

2 · I. Arhirii

9 · S. Decev

16 · M. Tipac

23 · D. Andreiciu

99 · E. Usatenco

Our number · milsami orhei winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

56% The market59%

Us56%

~~Market~~59%

We make Milsami Orhei a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · milsami orhei win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Milsami Orhei win	56%	59%	−4
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Politehnica UTM win	19%	17%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	53%	+1
Both teams to score	54%	52%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	33%	0
Milsami Orhei or draw	81%	83%	−2
Milsami Orhei clean sheet	37%	–	–
Politehnica UTM clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.5 4.6 3.0 1 9.3 11.5 5.2 2 9.6 9.3 4.8 3 6.0 5.9 3.0 4 2.9 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Milsami Orhei down, Politehnica UTM across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 686 Super Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Milsami Orhei at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Politehnica UTM away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Milsami Orhei, 1.02 for Politehnica UTM. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~POL 1–1 MIL · POL 0–5 MIL · MIL 4–1 POL · POL 0–3 MIL

Form · last six in Super Liga

MILSAMI ORHEI

LWDWLW2–4 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

POLITEHNICA UTM

WLDWLL6–0 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	14	+25	31
2	Zimbru	13	+15	26
3	Petrocub	13	+11	24
4	Dacia-Buiucani	14	−2	20
5	Milsami Orhei	13	−4	17
6	Politehnica UTM	13	−1	15
7	Sireți	14	−8	10
8	CSF Bălți	14	−36	5