Dacia-Buiucani v Sireți prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Dacia-Buiucani 3–1 Sireți DACIA-BUIUCANI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dacia-Buiucani win~~49%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.392

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.510

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dacia-Buiucani win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dacia-Buiucani was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–22
1′KICK-OFF Dacia-Buiucani v Sireți
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Dacia-Buiucani win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Dacia-Buiucani 0–0 Sireți
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Dacia-Buiucani win 40%)
46′SECOND HALF Dacia-Buiucani 0–0 Sireți
47′We said Dacia-Buiucani at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–43–19
48′Dacia-Buiucani score on 48′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
48′We published Dacia-Buiucani at 49%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
48′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Dacia-Buiucani 1–0 Sireți
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Dacia-Buiucani win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Dacia-Buiucani win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 43%)
52′Dacia-Buiucani find the net on 52′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Dacia-Buiucani 2–0 Sireți
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Dacia-Buiucani win: 49% at kick-off, 97% now
53′We published Dacia-Buiucani at 49%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
56′A goal for Dacia-Buiucani on 55′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′We published Dacia-Buiucani at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Dacia-Buiucani 3–0 Sireți
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Dacia-Buiucani win: 49% at kick-off, over 99% now
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Sireți
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Dacia-Buiucani
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Dacia-Buiucani
81′Sireți score on 80′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Dacia-Buiucani 3–1 Sireți
82′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Dacia-Buiucani 3–1 Sireți
FTDacia-Buiucani 3–1 Sireți · Dacia-Buiucani win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dacia-Buiucani are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dacia-Buiucani 49%, draw 29%, Sireți 22%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Dacia-Buiucani v SirețiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dacia-Buiucani win49%

Draw29%

Sireți win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueJoma Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dacia-Buiucani

Sireți

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Dacia-Buiucani	15	−2	21
7	Sireți	15	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dacia-buiucani winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market42%

Us49%

~~Market~~42%

We make Dacia-Buiucani a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dacia-Buiucani v Sireți~~1.48 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 10~~4 v 7

~~The market · Dacia-Buiucani win~~42% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dacia-Buiucani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dacia-Buiucani win	49%	42%	+7
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Sireți win	22%	30%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	42%	48%	−6
Both teams to score	45%	53%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Dacia-Buiucani or draw	78%	70%	+8
Dacia-Buiucani clean sheet	42%	–	–
Sireți clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 11.7 6.7 3.8 1 12.3 13.2 5.3 2 10.2 8.4 3.8 3 5.2 4.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dacia-Buiucani down, Sireți across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 692 Super Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dacia-Buiucani at home: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sireți away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Dacia-Buiucani, 0.89 for Sireți. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SIR 0–0 DAC · DAC 3–0 SIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

DACIA-BUIUCANI

DLWWLD0–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–5 · 0–0

SIREȚI

DLLLWL0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	15	+27	34
2	Zimbru	15	+15	28
3	Petrocub	15	+11	26
4	Dacia-Buiucani	15	−2	21
5	Politehnica UTM	15	+2	19
6	Milsami Orhei	15	−4	19
7	Sireți	15	−10	10
8	CSF Bălți	15	−39	5